From Washington: One month into the US-Israeli war against Iran, President Trump is simultaneously preparing for a longer conflict and pursuing an exit route that Tehran says does not exist. The result is mounting costs, deepening fractures among allies, and questions about whether the military campaign is delivering on its stated objectives.
On 28 February 2026, war began when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites and cities across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several other Iranian officials. More than 1,750 people have been killed in Iran since the strikes, including 217 children, while Israeli strikes on Lebanon have killed 1,116 people and injured 3,229 others since March 2.
Yet instead of a rapid victory, Trump finds himself managing a stalled campaign. Trump announced he is pausing strikes on Iranian energy plants until April 6, saying talks with Iran are ongoing and going "very well." But Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said "no negotiations have been held with the US", accusing Trump of trying to "manipulate the financial and oil markets", whilst a Foreign Ministry spokesman denied that any discussions had taken place.
The disconnect points to deeper strategic confusion. At least 2,000 paratroopers have received mobilisation orders as Trump continues his focus on diplomatic talks with Iran to end the war, despite Iran denying negotiations are taking place. The Pentagon is set to deploy up to 3,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division, and thousands of Marines are on their way, as Trump weighs whether to seize Kharg Island, home to Iran's main oil processing facility.
Back home, public patience is thinning. Americans say by 59% to 38% that the US made the wrong decision in using military force in Iran. Members of the House Armed Services Committee expressed frustration over briefings on the war's objectives and timeline, with growing angst over the war effort even among members of Trump's own party.
Perhaps more troubling for Washington's strategic position, China's largest chipmaker SMIC has sent chipmaking tools to Iran's military, two senior Trump administration officials said, with the collaboration "almost certainly included technical training on SMIC's semiconductor technology." SMIC, which has been heavily sanctioned by the US government over alleged ties to the Chinese military, began sending the tools to Iran roughly a year ago and "we have no reason to believe that any of this has stopped," one official said.
The revelation raises uncomfortable questions. The Chinese government maintains that it conducts normal commercial trade with Iran. Yet Washington has sought to curtail China's ability to make advanced semiconductors through sanctions on SMIC, and the Biden administration tightened restrictions on SMIC in 2024 by cutting off its most advanced factory from more US imports.
Though the Trump administration says its objectives are clear and unchanging, the list of priorities has expanded and shifted as the war has taken a toll on the global economy and tested alliances. By most accounts, the strikes have significantly degraded Iran's military capabilities and killed scores of senior leaders, but those tactical successes don't necessarily translate to achieving all the president's strategic aims.
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, warned that the global economy faces a "major, major threat" from the war's disruption to oil and gas flows, speaking at Australia's National Press Club in Canberra. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Canberra had sent a Royal Australian Air Force E-7A Wedgetail surveillance plane to the region at the request of the UAE, and later signed up to a pledge by 22 nations to plan for an eventual mission to clear the way for shipping as oil prices rose, but pointed out the lack of consultation by the US and Israel with their allies before the attack.
For investors and markets, the uncertainty is proving costly. Stock markets have fallen due to the uncertainty surrounding the US-Israeli war with Iran, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down around 9% since its February high. Oil prices have remained volatile, trading on every Trump tweet about negotiations or military plans.
The administration faces a genuine dilemma with no clean resolution. A prolonged war risks further economic damage and erodes domestic support. A premature exit with Iranian paramilitary forces intact would invite questions about whether the costs justified the outcome. And pushing harder militarily risks expanding the conflict further at a moment when Trump's own allies question whether they were consulted or properly prepared.
For now, the extended deadline to April 6 buys time. Whether that time produces genuine negotiations, a clearer strategy, or simply more of the same confusion remains unclear. What is clear is that a month in, victory looks more distant than the initial strikes suggested.