Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels have broken their month-long silence in the escalating Middle East conflict by launching ballistic missiles at Israel for the first time. Brigadier-General Yahya Saree, a military spokesperson for the Houthis, announced the attack on Saturday on the rebels' Al Masirah satellite television. The Israeli military said it intercepted one missile. The group fired a second missile toward Israel hours later, though both missiles were intercepted and no injuries or damage was caused.
The timing marks a significant shift in the conflict's trajectory. The Tehran-backed militia's intervention comes after the war entered its second month, during which Houthi leaders had signalled they might hold back from direct involvement. Saree said strikes "will continue until the declared objectives are achieved, as stated in the previous statement by the armed forces, and until the aggression against all fronts of the resistance ceases".
The immediate military impact is likely limited. The impact on Israel will likely be minimal, with Houthi missiles being detectable and relatively easy to intercept, while the Houthis will likely sustain serious damage as Israel has collected intelligence on the group since it stopped firing in October. The deeper concern is economic. The militia's attacks on shipping vessels during the Israel-Hamas war upended commercial transit in the Red Sea, through which about $1 trillion worth of goods passes each year.
The strategic threat now centres on the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a narrow passage between Yemen and the Horn of Africa that serves as the gateway to the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Around one-tenth of the world's seaborne oil shipments usually pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow chokepoint just 16 miles wide separating the Arabian Peninsula from the Horn of Africa, with Saudi Arabia further stepping up oil shipments via the Red Sea route amid the Hormuz disruption. Analysts warn that if the Houthis move to block this strait, the consequences could dwarf even the current economic upheaval from Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
If the Houthis decided to shut down Bab al-Mandeb strait, the Red Sea and, ultimately, the Suez Canal, then there would be two major choke points closed along with the Strait of Hormuz, according to one analyst cited in recent reporting. Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Mansour reinforced the message, saying that closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait remains a viable option.
The Houthis have demonstrated capability to inflict real damage. The Houthi rebels attacked more than 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sinking two ships and killing four sailors, from November 2023 until January 2025. That earlier campaign forced major shipping companies to reroute around southern Africa and created sustained disruption to global supply chains.
Australia faces direct exposure to any further disruption. Already around 20% of global oil and a similar share of LNG normally transit the Strait of Hormuz, and further blockades would raise energy prices and shipping costs that feed through to households. The fallout from the war in the Middle East is rippling far beyond the Gulf, disrupting fuel supplies, shipping routes and supply chains across Asia and the Pacific, with visible sharp increases in transport costs, energy and fertiliser prices.
Whether the Houthis will move against the Bab al-Mandab remains uncertain. Some analysts suggest Iran appears to be managing escalation gradually and keeping the Houthis in reserve, with the group functioning as an important card that can be played later given their ability to disrupt Red Sea shipping and create wider economic and security pressure, with holding them back preserving that leverage. Yet the group has now crossed a threshold by entering the conflict directly. The strategic calculus may shift rapidly if the war expands further.