The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, oil prices are climbing back above $110 per barrel, and President Trump's effort to assemble an international military coalition to reopen the passage is collapsing. After initially claiming that many countries had pledged to send warships, Trump has now faced public rejections from virtually every major ally he approached, leaving the United States scrambling to resolve a crisis that threatens global energy markets.
U.S. crude oil rose 5.46 per cent to close at $99.64 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude gained 4.22 per cent to settle at $112.57. These are the highest levels since July 2022 when Russia's invasion of Ukraine shook energy markets. Nearly 17.8 million barrels per day of oil and fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted, with close to 500 million barrels of total liquids lost so far.
For Australia, the implications are acute yet often unspoken. Australia is not among the countries asked to send a warship to help reopen one of the world's most crucial oil corridors, closed by Iran in response to the US-led war. Catherine King, a member of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's cabinet, said in an interview with state broadcaster ABC that the situation was incredibly important, but that was not something Australia had been asked or was contributing to. This absence of a formal request sits oddly with the fact that about 20 to 30 per cent of global oil consumption travels through the narrow strait, which separates Iran from the Arabian Peninsula.
Trump's coalition-building effort began with broad promises. He claimed numerous countries were eager to participate, but the reality proved far different. Australia, Japan, Poland and Sweden and Spain said they had no intentions of sending military ships. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters in Berlin: "This is not our war; we did not start it. We want diplomatic solutions and a swift end to the conflict, but sending more warships to the region will likely not help achieve that". Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel stated: "Blackmail is not what I wish for".
When faced with unanimous allied rejection, Trump responded on Truth Social with characteristic bluntness. He wrote that NATO, where the U.S. spends "Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one way street" and that "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries' assistance".
Yet the stated military success has failed to translate into a resolution. Trump's claims about productive negotiations with Iran have been contradicted at every turn. Trump insisted the U.S. has "very substantial talks going on with respect to Iran," though Tehran has denied direct talks have begun. Iranian state media reported that Tehran rejected a U.S. ceasefire offer and submitted its own list of conditions for ending the war, that counteroffer giving Tehran sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy analysts are sounding increasingly dire warnings about the economic fallout. Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, warned Monday that the situation in the Middle East is "very severe" and far worse than the two oil shocks in the 1970s as well as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on gas, put together. Goldman Sachs sharply raised its oil price forecasts, expecting Brent to average $110 in March and April, or a 62 per cent jump from the 2025 annual average, and upgraded its WTI estimates to $98 in March and $105 in April.
The economic consequences ripple through supply chains. The maritime corridor typically carries about a fifth of the world's oil and liquified natural gas and represents a key choke point for fertiliser trade. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development projects U.S. inflation will rise to 4.2 per cent in 2026, far ahead of the 2.68 per cent average rate throughout 2025, with the evolving conflict in the Middle East having human and economic costs and generating a surge in energy prices and disrupting the global supply of energy and other important commodities, such as fertilisers.
Australia's position reflects a broader strategic recalibration among U.S. allies. Australia maintains that while it has a strong interest in the free movement of shipping through the Persian Gulf, the country's primary region of interest remains the Indo-Pacific. The calculation is simple: limited naval capacity, competing strategic priorities, and no direct formal request from Washington. Opposition figures have been more critical. Andrew Hastie, a former SAS captain who served in Afghanistan, said: "You don't treat allies like that. Relationships that are long standing – you show respect and I don't think it was a respectful post at all. I thought it was a petulant post from a president under immense pressure".
For now, the Strait remains closed, negotiations appear stalled despite Trump's optimistic framing, and the burden of resolution falls squarely on Washington. Iran has effectively held the global economy hostage through the Strait of Hormuz, exporting more oil now than before the war and now collecting a $2 million 'toll' for ships to pass through. The failure to build allied support for an open corridor leaves Trump with fewer options, higher energy prices, and a growing credibility gap between his statements about military success and the unresolved reality of a closed waterway.