Climate forecasters are tracking the possibility of a strong or 'super' El Niño developing later this year, potentially bringing more severe weather extremes and a risk of very hot conditions for the world in 2027.
The term 'super' El Niño remains informal; it is not a scientific term, with the Bureau of Meteorology declining to use the terminology to categorise El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. However, in scientific terms, sea surface temperatures in key parts of the equatorial Pacific that rise at least 2.0 degrees Celsius above the normal average constitute a super El Niño, occurring on average once every 10 to 15 years.
Washington Post meteorologist Ben Noll estimated a 22 per cent chance of a super El Niño by August and an 80 per cent chance of a strong event based on European forecasting models. All models indicate a shift to El Niño is possible by the end of winter, though there is variation on the timing, with some suggesting development as early as May and others delaying onset until late winter.
The direct threat to Australia lies in the seasonal pattern that typically follows El Niño conditions. Eastern Australia especially faces a higher likelihood of drier and hotter than normal springs and summers during El Niño, though not every El Niño is the same, and the strength of the pattern does not guarantee hot and dry weather. The El Niño climate pattern last occurred in Australia in 2023, when it fuelled warm and dry conditions.
Australia's 2024 marked the second-hottest year for the country since records started in 1910. If a strong El Niño emerges, the warming could accelerate further. Should an El Niño form this year, it would likely mean an increase in the global average temperature for 2027, and there is a pretty good chance that 2027 would be a very hot year for the world, possibly a new record hot year.
One critical caveat remains: forecasting accuracy is limited at this time of year. Forecasts are unreliable during Australian autumn, with confidence unlikely until predictions come into sharper focus in May or June. Although many signs point to a super El Niño becoming highly likely, experts warn that forecasting remains uncertain because of the 'spring prediction barrier', with model accuracy in the early part of the year often lower than it is by June. In 2014, models predicted a major El Niño that ultimately failed to materialise because westerly wind bursts suddenly stalled.
The Bureau of Meteorology's long-range forecast page provides updated ENSO guidance, while more detailed technical analysis is available through NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Australians in drought-prone regions would be wise to monitor these forecasts as conditions clarify over the coming months.