Israel's military is preparing to expand its ground operations in Lebanon, with army chief Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir warning that "the operation against the Hezbollah terrorist organisation has only begun" and signals suggest forces may hold territory up to the Litani River. This plan could put troops across nearly a tenth of Lebanon, reviving fears of the kind of prolonged occupation that haunted the region for nearly two decades.
The comparison to history is unavoidable. The Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon lasted eighteen years, from 1982 until 2000. The occupation saw the emergence of Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Shia Islamist group that waged a guerrilla war against Israeli forces until their final withdrawal. Rather than resolving the security threat, the extended presence created it, a lesson military analysts and historians say Israel risks ignoring.
In 1982, Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Defence Minister Ariel Sharon described the invasion as 'limited' and 'targeted', yet within a week IDF troops had ringed Beirut, laying siege far past 40 kilometres north of the border. Military fatigue and public opposition in Israel eventually forced withdrawal, but not before Israel killed more than 4,000 people in its war on Lebanon, mostly civilians, and displaced more than a million people.
The current operation follows the sixth Israeli invasion of Lebanon since 1978, beginning on 1 October when Israel crossed the Blue Line. On 26 November, Israel and Lebanon signed a ceasefire agreement, mediated by France and the United States, which went into effect on 27 November. However, the arrangement has not held. Despite the ceasefire agreement, the Israeli military announced on 17 February that it would retain five military outposts on hills and mountains in southern Lebanon, and did not fully withdraw by the new deadline.
The stark reality of ground control has shifted from rhetoric to infrastructure destruction. Israel's Defence Minister Katz declared the IDF would demolish Lebanese villages bordering Israel and destroy all Litani river crossings, and following a warning, Israel destroyed the Qasmiyeh Bridge, the main bridge over the Litani river. More than 10,000 structures were heavily damaged or destroyed between 1 October 2024 and 26 January 2025, with vast destruction across almost the entire 120-kilometre southern border.
Some observers argue the military pressure serves a negotiating purpose. One analyst suggested Israel was "trying to apply as much pressure as possible on the Lebanese government and of course, Hezbollah, to negotiate and disarm the Iran proxy". Yet this calculation carries profound risks. Instead of eliminating the threat of terrorism, Israel's 1982 Lebanon war helped create new, longer-lasting security threats; a paradox that many Israeli leaders at the time observed with dismay, a strategic miscalculation of terrible proportions.
The ongoing conflict has forced approximately 96,000 individuals to leave their homes in northern Israel, while in Lebanon, over 1.4 million individuals had been displaced by late October. The war has killed more than 1,000 people in Lebanon and displaced nearly 1 million, 20 percent of the country's entire population, creating a humanitarian crisis.
International capitals have registered alarm. Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said in a joint statement that such an operation should be avoided. The Lebanese government stated it would not tolerate IDF troops remaining in Lebanon as it would be an "occupation".
The challenge is genuine: Hezbollah remains a significant military force with deep roots in Lebanese society, and Israeli communities on the northern border have experienced sustained rocket fire. But the historical record suggests that attempting to solve that problem through extended occupation produces not security but entrenchment, turning an adversary into a permanent, institutionalised enemy. Whether Israel's current leadership has absorbed that lesson remains the central question for the region's stability.