When Adelaide last beat Geelong at what is now called GMHBA Stadium, most of the current Crows list had not yet been born. That June afternoon in 2003, under coach Gary Ayres, Adelaide found a way to win despite a hostile environment and conditions that seemed stacked against them. Twenty-three years on, the Crows are heading back to the same patch of ground where they have endured an extraordinary drought, and this time they arrive wounded.
The Crows are coming off a consecutive six-day break and have lost three players due to injury while managing another. Most significantly, skipper Jordan Dawson is sidelined with a calf complaint, alongside Rory Laird and Taylor Walker. Callum Ah Chee will miss up to six weeks with a hamstring tear. For a side that finished 2025 as minor premiers, these absences strike at the heart of the midfield and expose Adelaide's depth in ways that matter most against an opponent with Geelong's pedigree at home.
The ground itself tells the story. Geelong have won 20 of 23 clashes at the venue, scoring 100-plus points on 12 occasions while only allowing the Crows to hit triple figures twice. Geelong's current win streak against the Crows at GMHBA Stadium stands at 13. But those raw numbers miss the fuller picture. GMHBA Stadium remains the last bastion of a suburban ground in the AFL universe. The wind can be treacherous, the surface narrow. Teams visiting Geelong do not leave their best football on the plane.
Adelaide showed promise in Round 2, nearly toppling the Western Bulldogs before falling short in the final moments. They showed immense character to fight back and hit the front in the final term before falling short at the death. That performance would normally signal a team ready to compete. Yet one six-day break later, three of their best midfielders were unavailable. The timing is brutal.
Geelong, by contrast, enter this contest on the back of a bye week. The Cats were soundly beaten in the opening round by Gold Coast, but they responded against Fremantle, coming from 35 points down to eventually ground out a 110-100 victory. That second-half rally, however patchy the overall execution, suggests a team learning to fight. Predictive analytics models give Geelong an 80 per cent chance of winning.
There is a path for Adelaide. Up to 15mm of rain is forecast in Geelong, and wet-weather games at Kardinia Park go under the total around 70 per cent of the time, with an average combined score of just 142 points. Adelaide's defence was rated first in the competition last year. Lower scoring favours teams that are more than just sum-of-their-individual-parts on offence. Yet even that angle requires Adelaide to execute with precision and without their best midfielders feeding their dangerous forwards.
The historical weight hangs over everything. James Gallagher kicked the sealing goal in that 2003 win. It remains the club's most recent victory in Geelong, nearly a quarter of a century later. The narrative writes itself: another loss, another Round trip home empty-handed, another year added to a drought that defines frustration in professional sport.
Yet Adelaide are not without hope, merely without margin for error. If the Crows can weather the opening half hour, if their replacement midfielders can find rhythm, if wet conditions reduce the impact of Geelong's dangerous forward line, an upset remains possible. Geelong will be favoured. History favours them. But Thursday night will test whether Adelaide's character, already demonstrated in Round 2, can overcome circumstances.