The Trump administration has drafted a 15-point plan intended to help bring the war with Iran to a close, highlighting the intensifying urgency within the Trump administration to resolve the conflict as the economic toll mounts.
The Trump administration sent a 15-point plan to end the war to Iran that was delivered via Pakistan, according to reporting by multiple outlets. A day earlier, Trump told reporters that there were "like 15" points of agreement between the U.S. and Iran, with keeping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon described as "No. 1, 2 and 3" on that list. The plan's specific details remain closely guarded, with White House officials declining to disclose them publicly. Iran continues to insist that no negotiations are underway.
Nuclear restrictions form the cornerstone of the framework. At the top of the list is the nuclear issue, with Trump repeatedly saying Iran will "never have a nuclear weapon", describing it as the primary condition of any deal. Beyond weapons constraints, the plan is almost certain to include provisions on the Strait of Hormuz, specifically guarantees that the vital oil shipping route remains open and secure after weeks of disruption. The blockade has rattled commodity markets and strained global energy supplies, with Iran, in a message circulated by the International Maritime Organization shortly afterward, assured safe passage to "non-hostile vessels" going through the strait, the gateway for one-fifth of the world's oil.
The proposal attempts to address broader security concerns beyond the nuclear file. There are also indications that the US may be seeking some form of acknowledgment of Israel's right to exist, a longstanding sticking point in any negotiations involving Iran. The emerging picture suggests that Trump's proposal is not limited to the nuclear file, but instead aims at a much broader reshaping of Iran's military and geopolitical posture, reflecting a long-standing US objective not just preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but reducing its overall influence across the region.
The diplomatic push coincides with a perplexing military reality. Israel is also intensifying its long-running strike campaign against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon and expanding its ground operations in the south of the country. This parallel escalation has raised questions about US-Israeli alignment. Prospects of a truce have not been helped by the widespread perception that Israel and the US are pursuing different goals and strategies, with the Israeli government focused on disabling the Iranian leadership whilst the US president said his objectives were to destroy Iran's ballistic missile-launching capability and ballistic missile production capability. Yet the Trump administration has not backed off of plans to ask Congress to pass a major war-related supplemental funding bill, which could reportedly total $200 billion, and the Pentagon is readying plans to deploy about 3,000 soldiers from the Army's 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.
The plan's feasibility remains contested. Iran has consistently denied formal negotiations are occurring, even as it acknowledges reviewing the proposal. The emerging picture suggests Trump's proposal aims at a much broader reshaping of Iran's military and geopolitical posture, precisely what could make the proposal difficult to accept. Regional economic consequences loom large for Australia and other trading nations. Even if the war ends soon, there will be no rapid recovery from the upheaval caused by airstrikes and Iran's virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas.