Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz announced plans to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, creating a defensive buffer that would amount to nearly 10 per cent of Lebanon's territory. The announcement marks a significant escalation in Israel's strategic posture, shifting from military operation to explicit territorial control. Speaking at a meeting with the military chief of staff, Katz said Israeli forces would control the remaining bridges and the security zone up to the Litani. The Litani lies approximately 30 kilometres north of Israel's border with Lebanon and has long featured in Israeli military planning.
Since 2 March 2026, an ongoing war in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah has become a major escalation in the wider Middle East conflict. The immediate trigger was Hezbollah's response to developments far beyond Lebanon's borders. On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran and assassinated Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Hezbollah launched strikes on Israel in response, and Israel responded by launching strikes across Lebanon, including the capital Beirut.
The strategic calculus reflects competing pressures. Israel is planning to significantly expand its ground operation in Lebanon, aiming to seize the entire area south of the Litani River and dismantle Hezbollah's military infrastructure. From an Israeli security perspective, this represents an attempt to eliminate a persistent cross-border threat to its northern population. Yet the humanitarian dimensions are stark. The war has killed more than 1,000 people in Lebanon and displaced nearly 1 million, constituting 20 per cent of the country's entire population and creating a humanitarian crisis.
The Lebanese government finds itself trapped between conflicting pressures. Following Hezbollah's 2 March attacks, the Lebanese government publicly condemned the group for launching attacks without state authorisation, moving to ban Hezbollah's military activities and calling on the group to place its weapons under government control. Yet the government has little capacity to enforce such demands amid the violence. The combat has undermined the government in Beirut, which, fearing inter-communal violence, has been unable to fulfil its promises to Washington to disarm Hezbollah, and US and Israeli officials have rebuffed Beirut's offer of direct talks with Israel to end the fighting.
Hezbollah has made clear it will contest Israeli territorial claims. The Lebanese armed group described any Israeli occupation south of the Litani as an existential threat to the Lebanese state, with senior Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah saying any Israeli occupation south of the Litani would be met with resistance. This signals a prolonged confrontation, not a quick resolution.
International responses reflect genuine concern about the conflict's trajectory. France, Canada, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom expressed they were gravely concerned at the violence and called for immediate de-escalation, jointly condemning Hezbollah's decision to join Iran in hostilities while also calling for the proposed Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon to be averted as it could trigger devastating humanitarian consequences and lead to a protracted conflict. The UN has raised specific concerns about methods and targets.
On 4 and 5 March, the Israeli military issued displacement orders for the entire population of Lebanon south of the Litani River and all residents of Beirut's southern suburbs. Since 12 March, the Israeli military has expanded areas subject to displacement orders, ordering residents to evacuate north of the Zahrani River. Whether these measures constitute proportionate security responses or violations of international humanitarian law remains contested, but the humanitarian toll is undeniable.
What the Lebanese conflict signals to broader regional dynamics is complex. Since November 2024, despite an official ceasefire, Israel has continued attacks in Lebanon nearly every day, killing 500 people including 127 civilians, while Hezbollah violated the ceasefire by rebuilding its militant infrastructure and weapons arsenal. The fragile ceasefire framework was already breaking down. Hezbollah's decision to join Iran's confrontation with Israel and the US appears to have shattered remaining restraint on both sides.
The strategic implications are significant. An operation of this size and scale could lead to a prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. The fighting in Lebanon is likely to outlive the Iran war, as Israeli leaders express intent to achieve the disarmament of the Iran-backed group that the Lebanese government promised but failed to deliver. For Australia and its regional partners, a prolonged Israeli military presence in Lebanon and continued Hezbollah armed activity will perpetuate instability across the Eastern Mediterranean and have ripple effects on global energy markets and shipping through contested waters.