Adelaide travel to a venue where they haven't won in 13 years, with the 732 games of experience lost coming on top of recruit Callum Ah Chee's hamstring injury. The Crows' injury toll reads like a season-defining blow: skipper Dawson failed to overcome a nagging calf complaint, while the 35-year-old Walker was rested, and Laird was hurt in Adelaide's six-point loss to the Western Bulldogs last Friday night.
Yet Nicks said the Crows will test their depth, that they've been pretty confident in it, and young guys will come in with some real enthusiasm that probably feel like they should have been there a bit earlier. This is not a counsel of desperation but of conviction; Nicks has built Adelaide from the wooden spoon into minor premiers in a single season, and he is not about to treat the match at GMHBA as a dead rubber.
The Crows' record in Geelong is unforgiving. They have beaten the Cats in Geelong just three times in 24 attempts, the most recent in June 2003. Adelaide's winning percentage in Geelong – 12.5 – is the club's lowest at any AFL venue. Those are numbers that hang over the club like a weight. Geelong's fortress reputation is not myth; Geelong at home is one of the most reliable spots in the AFL, with the Cats having built a serious record at GMHBA over a long period and they've consistently had the edge in this matchup.
But Nicks is not asking his team to accept that script. Rather than adopt a defensive posture, he is demanding Adelaide play with structure and intensity against a side that thrives on controlling space and tempo. He said that while you play Geelong anywhere there are lessons that come out of those games, they are a very experienced outfit that have great shape on the ground and extra numbers in the right spots, and the challenge for his team is to not lose themselves and lose their structure, otherwise you just can't compete.
This is the calculus facing Nicks. Adelaide, as minor premiers, finished atop the ladder last year and sit 1-1 this season. Under Nicks, the Crows finished minor premiers this year and returned to finals for the first time since 2017. That trajectory is fragile. A heavy loss in Geelong—the kind that the statistics suggest might be coming—would reset the narrative around Adelaide's credentials. A win would reshape the entire tenor of their season.
The practical obstacles are real. Geelong, coming off an early bye, is well-prepared, though Adelaide faces lineup challenges with injuries to key players. Four debutants or recalled players will line up for the Crows. Up to 10mm of rain is forecast in Geelong on Thursday night, which historically suppresses scoring at this ground considerably. Every element favours the Cats.
Yet the Crows have shown they can absorb punishment and bounce back. Geelong rebounded strongly with a comeback win over Fremantle at home, while Adelaide fell just short against the Western Bulldogs after a late surge, going down by six points. Adelaide ranked top for defence last year and have competitive midfielders in Jordan Dawson's absence. There are not many players more damaging than Jordan Dawson in the competition right now, and while he remains steadfast despite 2025 being a brilliant performance with a fourth place Brownlow finish, a second All-Australian blazer and a third consecutive Adelaide Best and Fairest Award, Dawson has already shown no signs of slowing down in 2026 despite the injury.
The challenge for Matthew Nicks is not whether Adelaide can win—they almost certainly can—but whether they are willing to play the football required to do so. Geelong thrive when opponents retreat into caution. Adelaide will only succeed if they have the courage to press forward, structure intact, and meet the Cats on their terms rather than merely survive under theirs.