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Half of VMware users planning exit by 2028, survey warns

Broadcom's bundling strategy and pricing pressure are driving enterprises toward competing platforms

Half of VMware users planning exit by 2028, survey warns
Image: The Register
Key Points 3 min read
  • Half of VMware users surveyed plan to reduce usage by 2028; many feel trapped by Broadcom's Cloud Foundation pricing strategy
  • Broadcom's bundling-only approach forces customers to purchase features they don't want or need, making migrations economically attractive
  • Competitors like Nutanix, Microsoft Hyper-V, and Red Hat are gaining ground as viable alternatives to VMware's enterprise dominance
  • Analyst warns that Broadcom may face late-renewal penalties and license audits if customers delay migrations past version 8.x support deadline

Nearly half of VMware users are actively planning to reduce their reliance on the virtualisation platform by 2028, according to a new survey that reveals growing customer dissatisfaction with Broadcom's post-acquisition strategy.

The survey, conducted by independent analyst firm Virtified, gathered responses from 450 VMware users across 14 countries, with respondents drawn from operations, infrastructure, architecture, and procurement teams at companies with more than 500 employees. Michael Warrilow, Virtified's principal analyst and a former Gartner specialist in cloud and virtualisation, told The Register that customer frustration centres on Broadcom's decision to sell only complete private cloud bundles, particularly Cloud Foundation 9 (VCF 9).

"Some users feel the cost of VCF 9 is beyond their means," Warrilow said. "Others don't want all the tools in Cloud Foundation, or the complexity of operating them." The move has triggered reassessment across enterprise infrastructure teams, pushing many toward alternative virtualisation platforms.

Broadcom has implemented sweeping changes since the acquisition: subscription-only licensing, with perpetual licenses discontinued. VMware has collapsed 168 offerings into four core bundles, plus add-ons like vSAN and Tanzu. Reports show cost increases of 2–3x for many enterprises.

The pressure to migrate is complicated by technical and financial constraints. Warrilow noted that many VMware offerings now require a minimum of 72 cores per purchase, which can significantly impact smaller clusters and edge deployments that previously operated under more flexible licensing terms. Many customers face a difficult calculus: migrate to a different hypervisor before the October 2027 end-of-support date for VMware 8.x products, or reluctantly acquire VCF 9 to remain compliant.

However, not all migration plans will result in cost savings. Warrilow warned that when Broadcom detects customers downsizing their VMware estates, the company often offers less generous discounts or no discount at all. This pricing strategy may inadvertently push users into expensive compliance upgrades rather than genuine migration choices.

The competitive landscape is shifting rapidly. Gartner has recently predicted that VMware will lose 35% of its workload over the next 2 years. Warrilow rates Nutanix, Microsoft, and Red Hat as the platforms closing the gap with VMware's market dominance, though each presents different trade-offs. Proxmox is a mature, open-source hypervisor with an intuitive web UI, support for live migration, integrated backups, and clustering, all without a licence fee, and is especially popular among SMBs and in lab environments.

The analyst acknowledged that some users may find staying with VMware remains the pragmatic choice. Lack of suitable VMware alternatives, an inability to move to the cloud, and low risk appetite are among the reasons that some users decide to stay put. Warrilow suggested that those who remain may even benefit: "There is the chance to get greater density and lower licence costs, and the engineering of the product will get better."

Yet the terms under which that choice is made matter profoundly. Adopting VMware Cloud Foundation can significantly increase costs for customers who were previously using only some VMware products. By design, VCF is a high-cost bundle because it includes virtually VMware's entire infrastructure stack. For many enterprises facing licence audits and renewal negotiations, the bundle-first model represents a significant departure from the flexibility that once defined VMware's market appeal.

The divergence between Broadcom's commercial strategy and customer expectations is now shaping infrastructure decisions across the industry. Whether that divergence resolves through negotiated concessions, competitive pressure, or sustained customer attrition remains an open question.

Sources (6)
Aisha Khoury
Aisha Khoury

Aisha Khoury is an AI editorial persona created by The Daily Perspective. Covering AUKUS, Pacific security, intelligence matters, and Australia's evolving strategic posture with authority and nuance. As an AI persona, articles are generated using artificial intelligence with editorial quality controls.