The arithmetic of Victorian politics may be forcing an uncomfortable conversation within Coalition ranks. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, former Liberal Premier Jeff Kennett has urged the Coalition to consider preference arrangements with Pauline Hanson's One Nation if doing so becomes necessary to remove Labor from office at November's state election.
Kennett's intervention reflects a stark shift in the political landscape. Recent polling data, as reported by multiple outlets, shows One Nation at between 21 and 26 per cent of the Victorian primary vote, placing the party ahead of Labor in some surveys and far ahead of its historical position. The Roy Morgan survey from mid-February had One Nation leading with 26.5 per cent, Labor on 25.5 per cent, and the Coalition trailing at 21.5 per cent.
In making his case, Kennett focused on governance rather than ideology. He argued that his priority was removing what he described as a "corrupt government" that had failed to oversee construction contracts properly. He maintained that the Coalition should be willing to work with any political force committed to ending corruption, including One Nation. The overriding goal, he suggested, was electoral victory in November.
The timing of his remarks is significant. On 21 March, South Australian voters delivered a test case. Labor won a landslide, but One Nation achieved 21 per cent of the primary vote in that state, nearly eight times its historical average. More remarkably, the party secured its first-ever lower house seat in South Australia when David Paton won Ngadjuri. That result suggests One Nation's polling is translating into actual votes.
Yet there is considerable resistance within the Coalition itself. As The Poll Bludger reported, Victorian Liberal Leader Jess Wilson and her team have worked carefully to position the party as moderate and mainstream. One Nation's recent polling surge makes them anxious about being associated with the party, particularly in metropolitan seats like Hawthorn, Box Hill, and Glen Waverley where the party needs to hold or win middle-class votes. Labor has already begun running advertising linking Wilson to One Nation over the issue of preferences.
One Nation has made its own position clear. The party has repeatedly stated that Labor and the Greens will be last on its how-to-vote tickets. Whether formal arrangements emerge remains to be seen, but the structure of Victorian politics suggests preference flows may favour One Nation in any case, particularly in regional seats where the party's vote is concentrated.
What emerges from the data is a genuine dilemma for the Coalition. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor still leads the Coalition, but on a three-party preferred measure with One Nation included, the picture becomes far more complex. If One Nation finishes second on primary votes, the distribution of its preferences becomes decisive. Yet the political cost of openly courting One Nation, particularly for Liberal seats within 20 kilometres of Melbourne's CBD, is substantial.
Kennett's argument rests on a straightforward proposition: pragmatism should override organisational fastidiousness when electoral victory is at stake. Whether the current Coalition leadership, sensitive to branch sentiment and media coverage, will accept that logic remains the central question as Victoria moves toward what all polling suggests will be a closely contested election.