Eastern Victoria MP Renee Heath won Liberal endorsement by defeating challenger Emma Smethurst in a closely watched preselection vote this past weekend that laid bare enduring factional tensions within the opposition.
Party insiders said Heath secured 59 votes to Smethurst's 31, giving the conservative-aligned member a decisive victory. The contest pitted Heath's conservative-right faction against moderate members who sought to mount a challenge in what had been viewed as a test of leadership unity under Opposition Leader Jess Wilson. The contest's significance extended beyond the upper house seat itself. Eastern Victoria is one of the party's most valuable upper house spots.
The preselection battles occur amid a backdrop of electoral pressure from One Nation that has shaken both major parties. South Australia's state election on 21 March delivered a landmark result that cannot be ignored in Melbourne. The Liberal Party received less primary votes than One Nation, marking the first time the Liberals have finished outside the top two by vote share at a South Australian election, with One Nation achieving its best performance in any state or federal election since 1998 Queensland.
Labor captured nearly 38 per cent of the primary vote, comfortably ahead of One Nation's 21 per cent and the Liberals' dismal 19 per cent. For Victoria, polling shows a more complex picture. One Nation leads on primary vote at 26.5 per cent, with the governing Labor Party at 25.5 per cent and the Coalition at 21.5 per cent.
The South Australian collapse raises uncomfortable questions for Victorian Liberals about their direction and electoral appeal. The South Australian Liberal Party has faced leadership churn of four leaders in four years. Victoria has its own recent history of instability: Jess Wilson defeated Brad Battin in a leadership spill on 18 November 2025, and Liberal observers worry that fractional disputes over policy could deepen if election prospects worsen.
Wilson has committed to unity and discipline after months of factional disagreement, yet the preselection contests reveal persistent divisions over whether the party should tack further right to counter One Nation's appeal or hold the centre-right coalition ground. These are not idle academic disputes. In seats where One Nation runs competitively, preference flows and candidate quality will determine outcomes.
The Coalition will need to net at least another 16 seats in November's state election to form majority government and end Labor's reign after 12 years. That threshold requires both the retention of existing seats and capture of new territory. One Nation's rise in regional and outer-suburban areas complicates this calculus considerably.
The South Australian result offers competing lessons for strategists on both sides of the Liberal factional divide. Moderates will point out that One Nation's vote came partly from major-party dissatisfaction and that a disciplined, united party can still hold broad appeal. Conservatives will argue that failing to speak to economic hardship, immigration concerns and regional abandonment cedes votes. Neither side is entirely wrong. Neither has yet provided a convincing template for recovery.