One Nation sees the South Australian election outcome as a springboard for the Victorian state election and the federal Farrer byelection, and strategists are already warning that a similar breakthrough could reshape Victorian politics when voters go to the polls in November.
In South Australia, One Nation captured 21% of the primary vote, comfortably ahead of the Liberals' 19%, marking its best performance in any state or federal election since the 1998 Queensland state election. The result sent shockwaves through mainstream politics: for the first time at a state election, the Liberal Party finished outside the top two by vote share in a major Australian state.
The warning signs for Victoria are already visible. Victorian electors are split with One Nation at 26.5% now ahead of the governing ALP at 25.5% and the Coalition at 21.5%, according to Roy Morgan polling conducted in February. If a Victorian State Election were held now there would likely be a hung parliament with a great deal of uncertainty about the results in many electorates.
From Perth, the political significance is clear. One Nation's breakthrough shows that frustration with establishment parties is not confined to a single state; it is a symptom of a broader discontent rippling across the country. The party's discipline and targeted messaging surprised observers. Flinders University lecturer Josh Sunman said One Nation's discipline had been the surprise story of the campaign, with the party delivering targeted messaging and candidate discipline and fewer candidate scandals and meltdowns than expected.
Yet the underlying causes matter. One Nation's surge began at the start of 2026, in the wake of the December 2025 Bondi terrorist attack. Regional and rural voters were more likely to cast their vote to One Nation at 39 per cent compared to 23 per cent for Labor and 15 per cent for Liberal. The party capitalised on anger over cost-of-living pressures, housing affordability and immigration.
Premier Peter Malinauskas acknowledged the One Nation surge could reshape Australian politics. In a candid assessment, he told ABC's Insiders programme that "the idea of safe seats, that's over, the idea of long-standing, intergenerational party loyalty amongst families is out the window".
The question now is whether One Nation's South Australian success represents a durable shift in voting behaviour or a temporary protest vote. Adelaide University professor Clem Macintyre said the rise of One Nation had the potential to create a watershed in Australian politics, though if they make a breakthrough, "they're going to have to work hard to be a more serious and viable alternative government".
Pauline Hanson pointed to state head Cory Bernardi's success in winning his upper-house seat, adding the party would be going hard at November's Victorian state election. For Victoria's incumbent Labor Premier Jacinta Allan and Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, the South Australian result is a cautionary note: the political ground beneath their feet is shifting faster than traditional polling might suggest.