From Washington: President Donald Trump has threatened to attack Iran's power plants if freedom of navigation is not fully restored at the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, a dramatic escalation as the US-Israeli war on Iran continues for a fourth week. Yet even as the ultimatum echoes across global markets and chancelleries, assessments from intelligence officials and analysts suggest Iran is unlikely to capitulate to the threat.
The economic stakes are undeniable. The Strait of Hormuz is a global choke point for oil and gas transport that supplies roughly one-fifth of the world's crude oil. With it choked off, the U.S. national average for a gallon of gas hit $3.94 Sunday morning, according to AAA, up more than a dollar from a month earlier. Trump's public message to allies has been direct: reopen the waterway or face consequences. Yet Trump faces increasing pressure to secure the vital waterway that Iran has promised to keep closed to "enemy ships", leading to soaring oil prices and plunging stock markets.
Iran's response has been swift rejection. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said "The illusion of erasing Iran from the map shows desperation against the will of a history-making nation. Threats and terror only strengthen our unity. The Strait of Hormuz is open to all except those who violate our soil. We firmly confront delirious threats on the battlefield." Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, said "vital infrastructure as well as energy and oil infrastructure" across the region would become "legitimate targets" should Iran's facilities be hit, and that its retaliation would increase the price of oil for a while.
The fundamental problem for the Trump administration is structural. US officials are furiously trying to avert a potential monthslong closure of the Strait of Hormuz, privately acknowledging that reopening the key waterway is a problem without a clear solution. One intelligence official said: "One of the core conundrums of this conflict is the Iranians have real leverage with this, and there's not an obvious fix for it."
Iranian officials have become reluctant to even discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz as they focus on surviving the US-Israeli onslaught. The Trump administration appears to have underestimated Iran's willingness to absorb the economic pain of a blockade in exchange for strategic leverage. The Trump administration underestimated Iran's willingness to choke off the key passageway, believing the move would hurt Iran as much or more than it would the US. But now that Iran has taken the gamble, the US has to confront the reality that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a far greater challenge than the other objectives laid out by the administration for the war.
Australian officials have signalled concern about the disruption. Australia was among 22 nations that signed a statement condemning in the "strongest terms" recent attacks by Iran against civilian shipping vessels and its move to shut down traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Yet several U.S.-aligned NATO countries rejected Trump's request for military assistance, including Germany, Spain, Italy, Estonia, the United Kingdom, Australia, South Korea, and Japan, as well as the European Union.
The geographical reality complicates any military solution. The strait is nearly 100 miles long, and the logistical challenge of such a vast shoreline makes it difficult to do any one thing to effectively neutralise the threat from Iran. Trump's contradictory messaging compounds the challenge. The threat marks a dramatic reversal from just a day earlier when Trump floated ending the war without reopening the strait, signaling the Hormuz crisis has become the issue he can't walk away from, even as he looks for an exit. On Friday afternoon, a little more than 24 hours before Trump's new threat, the president said he was considering "winding down" the war without resolving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The ultimatum's effectiveness rests on whether Iran actually fears the threatened strikes enough to reverse course. Current Iranian posturing suggests Tehran has decided the long-term strategic value of maintaining the blockade outweighs near-term military risks. If that calculation holds after Monday's deadline, the world will have a crisis without an obvious exit.