A significant gap has opened between Australians' sense of national security risk and their confidence in the country's ability to respond. Nearly half of Australians now believe a foreign military attack on the country is likely within the next five years, according to research from the Australian National University's National Security College, which surveyed and conducted focus groups with over 20,000 participants between November 2024 and February 2026.
But the concern isn't simply about invasion. Three in five Australians are currently worried about national security issues, marking a substantial increase from previous years. More troubling still is the perception that official institutions lack the capacity to handle such events. More than half of those surveyed felt the country was only slightly prepared or not prepared at all for scenarios such as a foreign military attack, a severe economic crisis, a critical infrastructure attack, or a major supply disruption.
Youth driving the shift
The most striking finding concerns younger Australians. The most dramatic escalation in concern is observed within the 18 to 24-year-old cohort, where 55% now express worry about national security, a stark rise from just 22% in November 2024. This doubled concern in just six months suggests either a genuine shift in the threat environment or an intensified media and political focus that has reached young voters more acutely.
Terrorism concerns have also spiked. Concern regarding domestic terrorism events has intensified, with 72% of respondents rating such an event as a "serious" concern in February 2026, following the Bondi attack. This reflects a well-documented pattern: specific violent incidents reshape public threat perception, even when statistical risks may not have materially changed.
Non-military threats dominate concern
An instructive tension runs through the data. Australians rate military attack as a serious possibility, yet they rank other threats as more pressing. The weaponisation of artificial intelligence was rated as the leading threat to Australia's national security, followed by a severe economic crisis and disruption to critical supplies. 77 per cent of respondents say they are concerned by the potential for the technology to be used to attack Australian people and businesses.
The timing of the survey release is significant. The study coincides with heightened global tensions, particularly the latest Middle East war, which has disrupted global fuel supplies, with Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen revealing that six oil ships bound for Australia had been cancelled or deferred. What were theoretical risks suddenly felt real as fuel queues formed across NSW.
What does preparedness require?
The low confidence in preparedness presents a genuine governance challenge. It could reflect either a legitimate deficit in institutional capacity or a failure of government communication. Possibly both. The ANU research suggests that most Australians want clarity and engagement rather than reassurance alone. According to the National Security College, which commissioned the surveys as part of a larger Community Consultations project involving interviews with hundreds of Australians and a public submissions process, the initiative is intended to inform a truly national conversation on Australia's future security and provide a better idea of how Australians perceive national security.
The challenge for policymakers is genuine. "Ensuring peaceful and safe communities" is the top priority for Australians across a wide range of demographic groups, providing a unifying national focus in an uncertain world. Yet the same public wants to understand the threats to that stability and how institutions plan to manage them.
Australia's strategic environment has undeniably shifted. But the gap between public concern and public confidence suggests that answering the security question requires more than military hardware or defence budgets. It requires sustained, honest dialogue between government and citizens about what threats are realistic, which are most urgent, and what the nation's actual capacity to respond looks like. The National Security College will release findings in full in a major new report launched at the NSC's Securing our Future conference at ANU on 24-25 March 2026. That conversation is only beginning.