South Australian voters have delivered a historic defeat to the Liberal Party, handing Premier Peter Malinauskas a commanding second term and rewriting the state's political landscape in the process.
The scale of the loss shocked even seasoned observers. The Liberals, who once held blue-ribbon electorates for decades, were swept away in what commentators describe as a red wave of unprecedented proportions. According to 7News, the party has been left with just a handful of seats, marking its worst result on record. Former Liberal Senator Christopher Pyne, watching the count unfold, told 7News he had only expected his party to win seven seats.
Liberal leader Ashton Hurn held her Barossa Valley seat of Schubert, along with two other seats held by colleagues in Bragg and Flinders. However, the broader story was the collapse of the Liberal vote across the state. In her concession speech, Hurn acknowledged the scale of the challenge facing the party. "It's a tough night for the Liberals, no doubt about it, lessons must be learnt," she said, adding that the party would take stock of the results. Her leadership role itself was notably new; she had assumed the position just 103 days before election day, according to SBS News.
The defeat reflected a combination of internal instability and fractured conservative messaging. As 7News reports, the party's leadership churn and internal divisions played out at the ballot box, with voters delivering what Hurn herself described as a brutal verdict on the opposition.
The broader political story, however, concerns One Nation's surge. SBS News reports that the party has polled at 22 to 28 per cent, outpacing the Liberal primary vote of 14 to 20 per cent and placing One Nation second in the state for the first time. This growth was particularly pronounced in regional areas. According to SBS News, YouGov's final opinion poll predicted Labor would achieve a 59-41 two-party preferred victory, with the Liberals on track for just 19 per cent, their worst result in any state or federal election since the coalition was formed.
The shift in One Nation's polling strength did not occur without incident. Hours after one political analyst commented on One Nation's campaign discipline, SBS News reports that a UK court issued an arrest warrant for One Nation candidate Aoi Baxter over a charge of sexually touching a woman without consent. Baxter was swiftly disendorsed.
For Malinauskas, the landslide delivers a powerful mandate to govern. His government captured nearly half of the state's 1.3 million eligible voters before election day, with over 454,000 people casting early votes and another 174,000 requesting postal ballots, according to SBS News.
Adelaide University emeritus professor of politics Clem Macintyre suggested to SBS News that One Nation's rise could mark a watershed moment in Australian politics. However, he cautioned that the party would need to establish itself as a serious alternative government if it were to consolidate support. "It's more frustration with the major parties," Macintyre said of One Nation's appeal.