Prediction markets are working to transform themselves from fringe betting platforms into essential sources for mainstream journalism. In recent months, Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest prediction market operators, have announced high-profile partnerships with some of the world's most prominent news organisations, embedding betting odds directly into editorial coverage and treating market movements as actionable news.
CNN has struck a partnership with Kalshi, the world's largest global prediction market company, bringing Kalshi's data to its journalism across its television, digital and social channels. CNN will get access to Kalshi's data through an API that automatically updates in real time, with the data featured on air through a real-time data ticker and referenced across CNN's platforms when journalists discuss news predictions. CNBC has launched a dedicated "Kalshi Hub," integrating economic and financial forecasts directly into flagship shows like Squawk Box and Fast Money.
The deals mark a significant shift in how newsrooms approach prediction and forecast reporting. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour believes CNN and other newsrooms can help audiences interpret what may happen more accurately in the future by accessing Kalshi's prediction data. Unlike other newsroom collaborations with prediction markets, CNN will not be paying to license Kalshi's data, but the partnership is exclusive, meaning CNN will not be working with any other prediction market data providers.
But the arrangement raises serious concerns about media independence and accuracy. Kalshi has inked deals to become a partner with CNN and then CNBC, with the goal of sharing real-time prediction data like the probability that the Democratic nominee will win the presidential election or that the Fed will cut interest rates. CNBC recently had a disclaimer saying that they have some equity in Kalshi, a fact that complicates the appearance of editorial impartiality.
The accuracy of these markets remains contested. One study found that Kalshi's political prediction markets beat chance 78 percent of the time during the final five weeks of the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign, compared with 67 percent accuracy on Polymarket, whilst PredicIt came out on top at 93 percent. However, research found a lot of inefficiency across platforms: the presidential election market prices were different and did not necessarily move together over time, and traders on the different platforms were not reacting in the same way to information.
The financial stakes are substantial. The two dominant platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, have formed a de facto duopoly that generated more than $44 billion in trading volume this year, with monthly volumes topping $10 billion in November. Kalshi raised $1 billion in a funding round that valued the company at $11 billion in December.
Critics worry that mainstream media partnership will exacerbate known vulnerabilities. Kalshi markets are much more open to manipulation than the stock market, and now that movement in Kalshi markets will be treated as news on CNN and CNBC, the incentives for market manipulation are even greater. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are losing bettors, which stands to hurt their bottom lines and make their predictions worse. This matters because smaller user bases mean less diverse input, potentially making markets less accurate during crucial moments.
The partnerships also raise questions about whose interests are being served. For publishers, prediction markets offer a salve for deteriorating trust in journalism, whilst for betting markets, these partnerships could help legitimise an industry that was mostly illegal until a few months ago.
More newsrooms are inking prediction market deals as a way to expand their audiences and earn licensing revenue. Yahoo Finance debuted a new integration with Polymarket, whilst Sports Illustrated and Time both launched prediction market data deals with Galactic this year. These arrangements represent a fundamental change in how newsrooms treat prediction and probability.
Whether mainstream media legitimacy will improve these markets or degrade editorial standards remains unclear. What is clear is that the line between the betting floor and the newsroom is blurring in ways that merit scrutiny from readers and regulators alike.