A 49-year-old man was shot twice in the arm outside a cafe on Borrack Square in Altona North late on Tuesday evening, in what police believe may be connected to the illegal tobacco trade. Emergency services were called to reports of the shooting outside Cafe Squared around 11.30pm on 17 March. A large group of people were sitting outside the eatery when a white Toyota Hilux approached and shots were fired into the crowd.
The victim was taken to hospital with non-life-threatening injuries. Those involved fled the scene in the vehicle, which was later found ablaze at the intersection of McArthurs and Chambers roads, roughly 800 metres away, around 2.50am. Detectives from Melbourne's Gang Crime Squad are investigating the incident as a targeted attack.
According to 9News reporting, police will investigate any potential links to other incidents. A crime scene has been established and the investigation into the circumstances remains ongoing, according to Victoria Police.
The shooting marks the latest episode in what authorities now openly call the "tobacco wars"; an ongoing series of violent criminal incidents centred on turf wars between organised crime groups over control of the illegal tobacco trade in Melbourne, with the conflict marked by firebombings, extortion and shootings, and as of early 2025, Victoria Police report over 125 arson attacks and more than 100 arrests.
The illegal tobacco market has become extraordinarily lucrative in Australia. A report released in November 2024 by the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission and the Australian Institute of Criminology found that Australia's illegal tobacco trade was worth an estimated A$4 billion in 2024, up from A$1 billion in 2021. The illegal tobacco trade in Australia is highly lucrative due to high taxation on legal tobacco, and organised crime groups have increasingly turned to this trade, leading to violent competition over territory and market control.
The pricing gap between legal and illegal products is substantial. A packet of cigarettes costing up to A$50 in taxes when sold legally might be sold for as little as A$15 under the counter. This price differential has proven irresistible to both consumers and criminal syndicates seeking to exploit it.
The illegal trade has resulted in a "significant increase in violence", including territorial disputes among organised crime syndicates that have resulted in murders, kidnappings, assaults, robberies and extortion of stores that refuse to sell the gangs' products. Illicit tobacco is sold through otherwise legitimate-looking stores, often owned or operated by front companies, with Victoria Police confirming over 100 properties have been targeted, primarily tobacco retailers and convenience stores across Melbourne and regional Victoria.
Victoria Police established Taskforce Lunar in October 2023 specifically to target organised crime syndicates involved in the illicit tobacco trade. The task force was established to target organised crime syndicates and their involvement in the illicit tobacco trade in Victoria, and since its inception, there have been well over 105 arson attacks at, or linked to, tobacco stores around the state.
The violence reflects the scale of criminal competition. Victoria Police has identified several organised crime syndicates, including state, national and global organised crime syndicates involved in the illicit tobacco conflict, comprised of personnel from Middle Eastern Organised Crime groups and Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs, who are then engaging local networked youth and youth gangs to carry out the offending.
The broader policy question remains contentious. Some experts argue that Australia's high excise taxes, which have been progressively increased, have inadvertently created the conditions for this criminal market to flourish. Others maintain that the problem stems from inadequate retail regulation and enforcement rather than taxation levels alone. What is clear is that the violence shows no signs of abating, and each new incident puts innocent bystanders at risk.
Anyone with information about the Altona North shooting is urged to contact Crime Stoppers Victoria on 1800 333 000 or submit a confidential online report.