From the Persian Gulf, the sound of alarm bells is hard to escape. The waterway that carries a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas remains effectively closed on the 15th day of the US and Israel's war on Iran. Beneath the diplomatic language from Washington, the reality is one of paralysis: tankers sit anchored in Iraqi waters, shipping companies have suspended services, and the global oil market reacts to each new attack.
On Saturday, President Trump responded to this crisis by calling for an international naval coalition. Trump hoped China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom would also send war ships to assist in the mission, but none of those countries gave any immediate indication they would do so. The appeal underscores a central challenge facing the Trump administration: reopening the Strait of Hormuz will require more than American firepower alone, yet consensus among traditional allies remains elusive.
The arithmetic of this crisis is brutal. U.S. oil prices have surged 28% to above $86 a barrel this week as Iran attacks tankers, effectively bringing ship traffic through the Strait to a standstill. Global benchmarks are worse; analysts warn that Brent crude would shoot above $100 per barrel if the waterway is closed for a prolonged period, and at that level, oil prices could tip the global economy into a recession.
What strikes observers most sharply is the contradiction embedded in Trump's own messaging. He asserts that the U.S. has already destroyed 100% of Iran's Military capability, yet simultaneously acknowledges that Tehran can still "send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are." This gap between stated victory and admitted vulnerability reveals the core problem: military dominance does not automatically translate to freedom of navigation.
The Strait itself presents brutal constraints. At its narrowest, just 21 miles wide, the Strait of Hormuz has long been viewed as a potential chokepoint that Iran could seek to close off during a war. Experts note that the potential threats to shipping traffic currently in Iran's arsenal include naval mines, anti-ship cruise missiles, drones, fast-attack boats operated by Iran's Revolutionary Guards and remote-controlled explosive boats. One military analyst stated bluntly: if the U.S. Navy attempts escorts, "they're 100% going to be shooting at the ships."
The practical logistics are daunting. A prior escort operation in the 1980s involved dozens of U.S. vessels, and if the one being considered by the Trump administration is at a similar scale, it could tie up a significant portion of the Navy's fleet. Moreover, tankers are not moving because they are worried about their physical security, and ship owners will need to see a sustained period without attacks to venture through the Strait again.
The Iranian side maintains its resolve. The Iranian military said that oil and energy infrastructure owned by US-linked firms would be "immediately be destroyed and turned into a pile of ashes" if the United States struck its oil facilities. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—the son of the country's previous leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—said Thursday that the Gulf should remain closed amid Tehran's ongoing strikes against tankers.
Analysts offer sober assessments. A Middle East security expert at King's College London told Al Jazeera that Trump's call for a coalition appeared to mask the absence of a broader plan to address the strait's closure, calling it "a desperate move in an information campaign to calm markets and that something magical will happen to open the straits short of actually engaging with the Iranian regime." The expert added that there was no quick military solution to reopening the strait, as all Iran needed to do was strike occasionally to keep insurers away.
For Australia, the implications are significant. As a nation dependent on stable energy prices and global trade, disruption at the Strait reverberates through supply chains and commodity costs. The administration's emphasis on coalition-building, even as partners hesitate to commit naval assets, highlights a truth that extends far beyond this particular crisis: controlling geography is never simply a matter of overwhelming military force.
The Strait remains closed. Oil markets remain volatile. And the diplomatic effort to reopen it, for now, has yielded no formal commitments from the nations Trump asked to help.