The federal Coalition has hit a historic low as One Nation consolidates its position as the second force in Australian politics. New polling data reveals the structural fragility of major party support and the depth of voter frustration over four years of economic strain.
The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted from March 9 to 14, shows One Nation's primary vote at 24 per cent, above the Coalition's record low of 22 per cent. Labor sits at 29 per cent, down from 31 per cent in February. The shift reflects not a swing toward any single alternative, but a broad rejection of the established parties by voters struggling with basic costs.
The trajectory of One Nation's rise has been sharp. As recently as Christmas Day, the party polled at 16 per cent. The acceleration began in earnest with former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce's defection in early December. His move signalled that established conservative voters now felt abandoned by both traditional options and were prepared to cross into territory once regarded as fringe territory.
This is not simply another fluctuation in the polls. Pollster Jim Reed told the Sydney Morning Herald that the shift represents something more structural. Labor, he said, had "lost vote share to minor parties, putting the party at its lowest point this term. This follows the interest rate rise and fuel shortages, which are the straw that broke the camel's back for voters who have been struggling with the cost of living for four years now."
The figures confirm where voter anxiety is concentrated. Cost of living dominates the agenda at 43 per cent of respondents naming it as the most important issue in Australia. When voters feel the basics slipping from their grasp, the usual boundaries of political choice dissolve.
The Coalition's new leader Angus Taylor has gained ground compared to his predecessor. His preferred prime minister rating sits at 31 per cent, up from Sussan Ley's 22 per cent. Yet this personal improvement has not translated into party recovery. The broader Coalition primary vote remains in crisis, suggesting Taylor's elevation has provided a minor circuit breaker rather than a reversal of voter sentiment.
The newspapers that commissioned the Resolve poll, the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, declined to report the two-party-preferred vote between the Coalition and Labor. Their reasoning was candid: the surge in One Nation support makes traditional preference distributions "potentially misleading". When minor parties exceed 20 per cent, the old model of politics breaks down.
This creates genuine complexity for policymakers and voters alike. One Nation has historically drawn former Coalition voters, not Labor supporters. Yet with the Coalition polling below 23 per cent, every seat becomes vulnerable. The question is no longer whether major parties can manage an orderly transition; it is whether they can govern at all.
Albanese's preferred prime minister rating fell to 35 per cent from 37 per cent. Labor's retreat to 29 per cent is modest by comparison to the Coalition's catastrophe, yet it signals that government incumbency no longer provides insulation when households are tightening spending on food and energy.
The political terrain is unstable. Taylor has promised to focus on cost of living, immigration restriction and defence spending. Hanson has positioned One Nation as the party willing to act on "mass migration" when the major parties have not. Neither offers a coherent solution to the structural economic pressures that have created this moment. Both are offering versions of recognition: acknowledgement that the usual political language no longer resonates.
The Resolve findings raise a question that will dominate the next phase of politics. Can established institutions absorb this degree of fragmentation and still deliver stable government? Or has the cost-of-living crisis created a rupture from which the major parties cannot easily recover? The answer likely depends not on polling trends or leadership changes, but on whether household financial circumstances improve before the next federal election.