If you've got a mortgage, Tuesday morning is going to hurt. According to a Reuters poll released this week, 23 of the 30 economists surveyed expect the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate by another quarter percentage point to 4.10% when it meets on 17 March. Only seven think it will hold steady.
That might not sound like much, but in plain English, it means your monthly repayments just went up again. For the average Australian mortgage of $736,259, that's roughly $2,805 more per year. If you borrowed $600,000, the RBA's latest hike in February already cost you about $90 extra each month. On Tuesday, you can expect another one.
The pressure is coming from inflation. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.8 per cent in the 12 months to January 2026, with housing inflation particularly fierce at 6.8 per cent. That's why the Reserve Bank has been steadily tightening the screws. The economy expanded 2.6 per cent over the past year, the fastest pace in nearly three years, which only reinforces the bank's concern that growth is running too hot and stoking price pressures.
Here's the honest answer: nobody at the Reserve Bank knows for certain whether inflation will settle back into their target band, which is why you shouldn't expect this cycle to end anytime soon. Major banks are already pricing in further 25-basis-point hikes in May and beyond, taking the cash rate to 4.35% by year-end on the median forecast.
The real pain is landing on variable-rate borrowers and first home buyers trying to get into the market. A significant portion of Australian households with mortgages, well over a million, could be pushed into financial stress if this tightening continues unchecked, according to early estimates. First home buyers, meanwhile, are watching their borrowing capacity shrink with each passing month.
For savers, the news is slightly better. Higher rates mean your savings account is earning more, though the gap between what banks pay and what they charge remains stubbornly large. Renters, unfortunately, are caught between rising mortgage costs pushing investors to higher rents and a rental shortage that gives landlords the upper hand.
Tuesday's decision will likely confirm what most Australians already suspect: the easy-money era is well and truly over. The only question now is how much higher rates go before inflation finally breaks.