The Australian Greens face a reckoning in Victoria's inner suburbs. Having surrendered three federal seats in this year's election, the party now confronts the prospect of losing ground at the state level, with Tim Read announcing in January 2026 he would not contest the 2026 Victorian state election following a metastatic cancer diagnosis. The Brunswick MP's exit removes a prominent voice and forces the Greens into an urgent battle to retain what has become a flagship holding.
The 2025 federal election undid the Greens' progress, with the party losing three of four seats after the party received an almost identical primary vote to the 2022 greenslide. The reversal holds lessons for state contests. The explanation lies partly in the change in preference flows to the Greens that occurred when the Labor vote surged. Where Labor strengthens, the mechanics of preferential voting punish smaller parties: when the dominant party holds second place after initial counting, votes transfer away from the Greens.
This dynamic may already be reshaping Victorian politics. The Richmond electorate, neighbouring Brunswick, has become a battleground. Richmond was continuously held by Labor until 2022, when Gabrielle de Vietri won the seat for the Greens with a 14.1% swing towards the party. The seat's gentrification has shifted its character, yet it remains contested terrain where both major parties see opportunity.
Labor's Richmond candidate is signalling a strategic shift. By vowing to push the government on safe injecting rooms and social housing, the candidate appears to be exploiting a gap between Greens activism and Labor's administrative caution. On the injecting room question, the distance is measurable. In April 2024, the Victorian Labor Party government decided not to introduce a second medically supervised injecting room in Melbourne's CBD, despite two official government reports recommending it, including the official review of the existing injecting room in the City of Yarra in 2023, and the report by the former police commissioner Ken Lay. The Greens responded sharply. The Greens said it was disappointing the Government seemed to be backing away from evidence-based recommendations that would make the situation in North Richmond better, such as expanding eligibility criteria and establishing more smaller discrete facilities across the state.
Housing pressure is equally acute. As of December 2024, more than 55,000 Victorian households were on the waiting list for social housing, up from 50,732 in December 2023. The Greens have been vocal on this issue. The Victorian Government appears to have wound back a 2018 commitment to build "a full 20 per cent public, social and affordable housing" in perpetuity on the Fitzroy Gasworks site, to only offering a 10 per cent discount on rents on some of the 1200 private units for the next ten years. Fitzroy borders Richmond; the electorate's residents have legitimate cause for disappointment.
Labor's strategy carries risk. By acknowledging that the government falls short of what the Greens propose, Labor candidates may reinforce the case for a Greens vote among inner-city progressives. The party's federal setback suggests that activist voters, once energised, do not easily switch allegiances. Yet there is also a limit to how far Labor can move leftward without alienating suburban voters who hold the keys to government. The Brunswick preselection, and the broader battle for Melbourne's inner east, will test whether the Greens can stabilise after their federal retreat.
The Australian Electoral Commission publishes detailed results from federal and state elections. The Victorian Premier's office provides information on state housing initiatives. Research into the political dynamics of this contest is available through the Alcohol and Drug Foundation's analysis of supervised injecting centres.