The memory chip shortage is unlikely to end before the second half of 2027, meaning consumers are unlikely to see meaningful improvement in supply or pricing until around late 2027. Just as the industry was bracing for this extended scarcity, a geopolitical shock has added a new layer of urgency: Qatar's shutdown of its Ras Laffan facility has removed roughly one-third of the world's helium supply.
The convergence of these two crises creates a difficult moment for global chip manufacturing. DRAM prices have surged significantly as demand from AI data centres continues to outstrip supply, creating a supply/demand imbalance. Memory chip output from Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, CXMT and Nanya is forecast to grow 26% this year, but these volumes won't be meaningful before the second half of 2027.
More concerning is the outlook that there is no scenario where memory prices correct in the second half of 2027, given that hyperscaler purchasing intent remains unbroken. New manufacturing capacity takes a minimum of two years to come online. The AI infrastructure buildout is consuming memory supplies at unprecedented rates, leaving less affluent consumer segments to absorb the cost shock.
The helium disruption adds a layer of supply chain vulnerability that industry observers had long warned about. State-owned QatarEnergy halted production at Ras Laffan on 2 March after Iranian drone strikes targeted the facility, and subsequently declared force majeure on existing contracts. Helium, essential for cooling silicon wafers during chip manufacturing, has no viable substitute.
The implications for South Korea's electronics sector are particularly acute. South Korea supplies around two-thirds of global memory chips. South Korea imported 64.7% of its helium in 2025 from Qatar, and as the Strait of Hormuz is blockaded, maritime transportation routes for Qatari helium are also blocked, further increasing supply chain breakage risks.
Industry leaders are taking defensive positions. SK Hynix said it has long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory of helium and does not expect to be affected. TSMC says it does not expect a significant impact and Korean chipmakers are estimated to have as much as six months of helium stockpiles. However, if the shutdown extends beyond two weeks, industrial gas distributors including Linde, Air Liquide and Iwatani will be forced to rework logistics and contracts, changes that could take months to unwind.
The impact on consumers is likely to be severe. Research and analytics firms Gartner and IDC expect worldwide PC market to decline 10-11% and smartphone market to decline 8-9% in 2026, with Gartner projecting that rising memory prices will make low-margin entry-level laptops under $500 financially unviable in two years.
For Australian consumers and technology workers, these supply chain shocks carry real consequences. PC and laptop upgrade cycles will slow as prices climb. Smartphone markets will narrow toward premium devices. The entry-level devices that made personal computing accessible are likely to disappear from retail shelves. This is not merely a pricing issue; it is a structural reordering of which consumers can access which technology.
The helium situation illustrates a broader vulnerability in global semiconductor supply chains. Qatar's Helium 4 project, expected in 2027 and previously the next major supply addition, is being built at Ras Laffan itself, meaning the same conflict now disrupting current flows may also delay future capacity. Geopolitical risk, once peripheral to semiconductor planning, has become central to it.