If you've noticed something's been off at the checkout lately, you're not alone. The war between the US, Israel and Iran is about to make a dent in your wallet in ways that might not be immediately obvious. And I'm not just talking about fuel prices at the pump, though those are climbing too.
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint for global energy trade, has experienced ongoing disruption since 28 February 2026, following military strikes on Iran. This narrow waterway between Iran and Oman isn't just important; it's critical. The Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran and Oman, is one of the world's most critical oil transit routes, with roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies passing through it.
Here's what's happened: Tanker traffic has dropped first by approximately 70% and over 150 ships are anchoring outside the strait to avoid risks, with traffic going to about zero. Ships aren't moving through. Neither are the goods, fuel and raw materials they carry. For Australian consumers, this creates a cascade of problems that starts at the source and works its way to your kitchen table.
The energy shock ripples outward
First, the obvious one: energy costs. The strait saw roughly 13 million barrels of crude per day passing through it in 2025, representing about 31% of all seaborne crude flows, and oil prices have spiked sharply since the conflict started, nearing $120 a barrel on Monday. Australia imports a significant amount of its petroleum products, and when global crude prices rise, local petrol prices follow. Expensive crude typically feeds into higher gasoline and diesel prices, pushing inflation up and costing consumers more to fill up at the pump.
But it's not just about what you pay at the bowser. The increase of oil prices is inevitably going to be passed on to the consumer, and when shippers' costs go up, this is folded into the price at the pump that consumers pay in a market. Every item that travels by truck, ship or plane becomes more expensive to move.
Your food bill is about to climb
Here's where it gets personal. The Strait of Hormuz isn't just about oil. The strait is central to the global fertiliser trade, with more than 30% of urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertiliser produced from natural gas, exported from Gulf countries by sea, and urea prices rose by about 14% on March 2. Fertiliser is a major cost in farming. Fertilisers account for a significant share of production costs in many agricultural products, just over a third each for both corn and wheat, and when increasing fertiliser prices combine with rising energy costs, producing important crops becomes more expensive.
Analysts are anticipating the risk of a fresh inflationary push in food products in the coming months, with potential effects on consumer prices as early as the summer of 2026. If you grow vegetables or depend on imported food, the timing is genuinely concerning.
The hidden supply chain crisis: your laptop and phone
Then there's the supply chain issue most people haven't heard about yet. Qatar produces more than a third of the world's helium, a noble gas that's essential to making computer chips. Qatar produces over a third of the world's helium supply, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, and helium is used in the manufacturing process to transfer away heat. QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan Industrial City was hit by an Iranian drone attack last week, taking the site offline.
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, more than 25% of the world's helium supply would be taken off the market by an extended shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Phil Kornbluth, president of Kornbluth Helium Consulting. Helium spot prices have surged 35 to 50% in the past week. That's the gas that cools the equipment making memory chips for your laptop, your phone, and every AI server currently training the latest language models.
The implications are serious. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could disrupt supplies of key chipmaking elements such as helium and bromine, and higher energy costs could also dampen demand for AI data center buildouts which could hurt memory chipmakers like Samsung and SK Hynix. In practical terms: memory prices for PCs and laptops are likely to climb. If you're thinking about upgrading your computer or replacing a phone, the cost could be substantially higher in the months ahead.
The shipping surcharge hits everything
Even if goods do move, they're now vastly more expensive to transport. Major container lines are imposing war risk surcharges ranging from US$1,500 to US$4,000 per container. More than 150 ships, with a combined capacity of about 450,000 containers, are stranded in the region. Most companies are rerouting around Africa, which means longer delivery times and additional costs.
What about Australia specifically?
Australia is fortunate in some respects. We produce our own oil and don't rely heavily on Middle East imports for food. But we're not immune. Many consumer goods sold in Australian shops come from Asia or Europe and transit these routes. Electronics, textiles, furniture and appliances will all face higher shipping costs. Your electricity bill may creep up as energy costs flow through the system. And if you're buying anything that contains aluminium, expect higher prices; aluminum was traded at $3,406.50 per ton in cash settlement as of Monday, up about 8 percent from $3,157.50 on Feb. 27, and the price hike came amid growing concerns over supply disruptions following Iran's repeated threats.
The short version: this Middle East conflict isn't distant news. It's a supply chain problem that will show up in your grocery bill, at the petrol pump, and in the price of the next computer or phone you buy. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, the more pronounced the impact becomes. Keep an eye on energy prices, watch for shipping cost notices on goods you buy regularly, and if you've been putting off replacing electronics, you might want to act sooner rather than later.