Here is a fundamental strategic question for Iran's leadership: when your adversary is desperately seeking an excuse to draw your neighbours into a wider war, why provide it?
For the first time in history, Iran attacked all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.The number of missile, drone and other attacks is estimated to number in the several hundreds.In the first four days of conflict, the United Arab Emirates suffered the highest number of strikes, both intercepted and successful, followed by Kuwait and Bahrain — all hosts to US bases.
The immediate question facing Gulf leaders is stark.The question facing Gulf leaders is essentially "how long do we keep sitting on our hands and absorb these relentless Iranian strikes?" said Middle East policy expert Hasan Alhasan to The New York Times.Iran's strategy of trying to threaten energy security, drive a wedge between Gulf and Western states and raise costs is "backfiring," according to Middle East expert Hasan Alhasan, because "it's driving and pushing the Gulf states into closer alignment with the United States."
This outcome should surprise no one.Iran's decision to retaliate across the Middle East has amounted to a strategic mistake, isolating Tehran and angering neighbours, according to Arab diplomats. "The Gulf countries have no choice — it was a huge mistake for Iran to strike the Arab neighbours. People are furious. They should not have attacked our bases," one veteran diplomat told NBC News.
Consider the precarious position this creates for Gulf states.Gulf states have condemned Iranian strikes but also, in the case of Oman, criticised US-Israel action, while they have accused Iran of a breach of the UN charter and said they reserve the right to respond to its attacks. This is no longer theoretical.Qatar shot down two Iranian jets approaching its territory, the first time an Arab state militarily clashed with Iran, carrying a message that under siege, once-passive Gulf Arab states are striking back.
Yet the counter-argument deserves serious consideration. Gulf leaders face a genuine dilemma.The GCC states did not want this war and tried to lobby against it, yet the prospect that they might join the war and be seen as "working with the Israelis, is a huge challenge for their legitimacy."Prior to the war, several Gulf states warned against a military campaign, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan said they would not allow the US to launch airstrikes against Iran from their territory. But since being hit, everything has changed.
The military analysis is instructive.The war is reshaping the strategic landscape of the entire region and creating a military alignment between the US, Israel, and the Gulf states unlike anything seen before. The objective is to deny Iran the ability to operate beyond its borders, addressing not just the nuclear program, but its missiles, drones, and naval assets. So far, the force multiplier created by this cooperation has been successful in striking hundreds of targets in Iran and suppressing retaliatory fire.
But what happens next matters enormously.From a logistical and strategic standpoint, the way Iran has retaliated has pushed the Gulf states toward deeper cooperation with the US and Israel.Saudi Arabia signaled it would respond to Iranian attacks and placed its armed forces on heightened alert. Continued escalation could push the kingdom and other Arab states to join the US-Israeli military campaign.
Strip away the talking points and what remains is this: Iran has handed Western powers and their regional allies precisely what they wanted. Gulf states that weeks ago were lobbying hard for diplomatic solutions now face internal pressure to take offensive action.Gulf states can't simply sit idle and continue absorbing indefinite attacks to their critical infrastructure and to civilians in Gulf cities.
Whether Gulf states ultimately commit to offensive strikes remains uncertain.Analysts argue they are more likely to launch strikes themselves, possibly through a joint GCC effort, rather than simply opening their airspace for US and Israeli operations, as "they don't want to be seen as working for Israel" but "want to be seen as leading, not just following."The immediate fear for Gulf leaders centres on their most vulnerable infrastructure, including strikes on power grids, water desalination plants and energy infrastructure. Without air conditioning and water desalination, the scorching hot and bone-dry Gulf countries are essentially uninhabitable.
History will judge this moment by whether regional powers found a path back from the brink. For now, Tehran has made that path considerably harder to find.