Australian shoppers are paying more for Easter chocolate than ever before, yet the supply chain signal from global commodities markets tells a completely different story. The gap between what you pay at Coles and Woolworths and what cocoa costs on international exchanges reveals something important about how food manufacturing works in practice.
Easter chocolates have increased by an average of 26.6 per cent year-on-year, with some favourites like the Crunchie Hollow Egg spiking by 33 per cent.The popular 100g Lindt Bunny has seen a 32 per cent increase across Coles, Woolworths and IGA stores. A 250 gram Cadbury Easter bunny that cost $12 last year now costs $15.
Yet here is where the picture becomes complex.The price of cocoa in the international commodities markets has been on a wild ride recently, but has now fallen dramatically from around US$12,000 per ton to just over US$3,000 per ton. This represents a 75% collapse in raw material costs in just three months. If cocoa prices have plummeted, why are shoppers still paying record prices for Easter treats?
The answer lies in how chocolate makers operate. Large manufacturers like Cadbury and Lindt do not buy cocoa on the spot market; they secure their supply chains through contracts and hedging arrangements agreed many months, sometimes a year, in advance. When manufacturers locked in their Easter 2026 supply in early 2025, cocoa was trading at historic highs. Those locked-in costs remain on the books regardless of what commodity prices do between now and Easter.
Mondelēz International admitted that it was unable to take advantage of falling prices in the short term, as it was already covered for 2026. For large companies, "most of their volume is tied to previously agreed positions which don't expire all at once, so falling spot prices take time to flow through." Only when existing contracts expire will manufacturers be able to benefit from lower raw material costs.
The economic tension here is genuine. Manufacturers face a real dilemma: cocoa prices surged unexpectedly in 2024 and 2025 due to severe weather and disease in West African cocoa-producing regions. Hedging against that volatility required payment of premium prices. Failing to hedge would have exposed the entire margin structure to unlimited commodity risk. The choice was between certain losses now or potential catastrophe then.
Professor Gary Mortimer told Yahoo Finance that you would expect "probably at the back end of this year, and maybe next Easter in 2027, you'll see lower prices" for chocolate products. This reflects the practical reality of supply chain timing. Products already on shelves were manufactured months ago and locked in at peak cocoa costs. Relief will come, but not in time for Easter 2026.
The situation also highlights a secondary dynamic: shrinkflation. Rather than raising prices on some items, manufacturers have reduced portion sizes while keeping prices flat or raising them only modestly. This transfer of cost to consumers is less visible than a price increase, but the effect on the hip pocket is identical.
For Australian exporters and businesses with cocoa exposure in supply chains, the message is mixed. Global cocoa supply is improving, with West African harvests looking stronger and projected surpluses expected in 2026 and 2027. Yet chocolate prices are unlikely to fall substantially until late 2026 at the earliest. Retailers and manufacturers know this too. Some, likeCadbury, note that more than half of their 2026 Easter range is priced at $10 or less, with entry-level products starting from $1.80, offering shoppers some options beyond premium items.
The practical reality is that commodity hedging exists for good reasons. It protects jobs, production schedules and profit margins from the kind of price spikes that ravaged cocoa markets in 2024-2025. The trade-off is that this protection locks in high costs even when markets eventually fall. For now, Australian chocolate lovers remain locked into paying the premium. Relief, when it comes, will benefit those buying Easter chocolate next year far more than those hunting eggs this Easter.