One Nation will choose its Farrer by-election candidate on Saturday after narrowing an initial field of more than 80 applicants to three finalists. The selection could determine whether the party can translate recent polling strength into actual parliamentary representation.
David Farley, a Riverina agricultural leader and former CEO with global experience in irrigation, cotton and cattle enterprises, is one of the three candidates voters will choose between.Farley was recently elected chair of Speak Up 4 Water, a regional advocacy group focused on irrigation policy. The other finalists areLeigh Wolki of Albury, a small business owner and agriculture advocate focused on water security and local infrastructure, and Guy Cooper, a fifth-generation Farrer local and agribusiness relationship manager.
The preselection vote will take place onSaturday, 7 March 2026 at the Albury Entertainment Centre, with eligible party members of more than three months standing invited to vote.Farrer is located in the far south-western area of New South Wales and includes the towns of Albury, Corowa, Narrandera, Leeton, Griffith, Deniliquin, Hay, Balranald and Wentworth.
Water management has become the defining issue in the campaign.Water is expected to be one of the key issues in the byelection, reflecting decades of tension over Murray-Darling Basin allocation and agricultural sustainability.The electorate is known for its agricultural industries, particularly irrigation farming, viticulture, and wool production.
Farrer has been a safe Liberal seat since Ley first won it in 2001, though the Liberal Party suffered a 10% swing against it on two-candidate preferred vote against an independent candidate in 2025, and won the seat on a reduced margin of 56.19% to 43.81%. The 2026 contest is shaping as significantly more competitive.The National Party is expected to contest Farrer for the first time since losing the seat in 2001, with Coalition rules having forbidden the parties from running a candidate in a sitting Coalition MP's seat.
This by-election representsOne Nation's first major test of its polling surge. The party has experienced a remarkable lift in support, but converting opinion poll numbers into votes remains uncertain.The contest is shaping as a big test of whether the surge of support for One Nation in recent opinion polling will translate into actual votes.
The field is crowded.Prominent independent Michelle Milthorpe, who came second in the 2025 election, is running in the byelection.Anthony Albanese said the Australian Labor Party would decide whether to contest the by-election "once Sussan Ley actually resigns", though the government is widely expected not to field a candidate in this traditionally conservative seat.
For One Nation, Farrer represents both opportunity and risk. The electorate fits the party's demographic profile. Rural voters frustrated with water policy and infrastructure have shown willingness to vote outside the major parties. Yet the presence of both a competitive independent and revived National Party competition could split the anti-Labor vote in ways that benefit neither One Nation nor the Liberals.
The by-election will be held on 9 May 2026. The outcome will provide the first real measure of whether One Nation's polling strength reflects genuine electoral momentum or temporary protest sentiment. The party's ability to organize ground operations, retain membership support, and deliver votes will matter as much as the candidate's credentials. All three finalists bring legitimate regional expertise. How voters judge them will reveal much about the state of Australian conservatism in 2026.