The numbers tell a different story about which team should be favoured on Saturday. While Hawthorn enters their opening round contest against GWS as betting favourites, the injury profile of both sides reveals a more complex picture than recent form might suggest.
In a rematch of last season's Elimination Final, GWS and Hawthorn launch their 2026 AFL campaigns at ENGIE Stadium on Saturday afternoon, with the Giants entering the season under a cloud from a lengthy injury list headlined by Tom Green's ruptured ACL, whilst key contributors Josh Kelly, Sam Taylor and Brent Daniels are also sidelined. When you dig into the data,Josh Kelly, Sam Taylor, Tom Green, Brent Daniels, Toby Bedford, Aaron Cadman and Darcy Jones are all unavailable, leaving their midfield and small forward stocks particularly depleted.
Yet Hawthorn's injury concerns warrant scrutiny too.Hawthorn have their own midfield concerns with Will Day and Cam Mackenzie absent and the departure of James Worpel leaving them thinner through the middle. The Hawks' departure of key personnel suggests their list depth has taken a step backwards, despite occupying a favourable betting position.The Hawks' best 23 has arguably taken a step backwards with the players that departed at the end of last season.
What the metrics reveal is a systemic pattern across Australian rules football right now: depth matters as much as star power.Lachie Whitfield remains one of the most consistent ball winners in the competition and finished last season with 25 or more disposals in eight consecutive matches. For GWS, the captain's continued excellence will be crucial as they navigate their depleted midfield.
Across Queensland, the narrative shifts entirely.Brisbane will unfurl its premiership flag before hosting the Western Bulldogs on Saturday night at the Gabba, with the Lions beginning their back-to-back premiership defence with typical questions over whether the side can maintain the hunger to challenge again even while being the hunted each week.The Lions take on the Western Bulldogs at the Gabba on Saturday with the first bounce scheduled for 6:35pm.
The Lions list looks even stronger than last year with free agents Oscar Allen and Sam Draper added alongside Academy pick Dan Annable, and a young crop of existing talents with considerable upside. YetBrisbane coach Chris Fagan isn't expecting early miracles from Oscar Allen, saying it might take some time for the star recruit to build on-field chemistry with his new teammates. That patience will be tested immediately against a Bulldogs outfit hungry for respect.
The Bulldogs will be out to bounce back from a frustrating campaign where they paid a huge price for too often failing to beat the other finals contenders while brushing aside the lesser lights, with the Dogs getting the ideal opportunity to show that they can improve in that key area as they begin their season against the reigning premiers while boasting a best 23 packed with top-end talent.
Here's a stat that might surprise you:the Tribunal's clearing of Jai Newcombe does give the Hawks a boost, particularly in the clearance department, an area in which GWS has previously struggled without Tom Green, and with Hawthorn winning their first game at ENGIE Stadium last year, the home ground advantage is not as strong as it once was, which should see the Hawks start 2026 with a win.
What Saturday's double-header reveals is that Opening Round fixtures serve as genuine tests of list depth and injury management, not merely warm-up contests. For GWS, Clayton Oliver's midfield partnership with Finn Callaghan becomes a question of whether new recruits can offset established absences. For Brisbane, winning whilst introducing new talent against a Finals-ready opponent would send an unmistakable signal. And for Western supporters hoping 2026 is finally the year, starting against the best team in the competition offers both the highest risk and the highest reward.