As Australian officials confirmed this week, Iranian drone strikes have reached a military facility that Canberra has long relied upon, and Australians are being drawn directly into a conflict that erupted when the United States and Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iran beginning 28 February.
Israel and the United States engaged in coordinated joint attacks on various sites in Iran, codenamed Operation Roaring Lion by Israel and Operation Epic Fury by the United States, targeting key Iranian officials, military commanders, and facilities.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader who ruled the country for almost four decades, was killed in joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran.
The first hours revealed the strategic ambition of the operation.The operation began with joint strikes by Israel and the US in the cities of Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose compound was destroyed.Iranian drones attacked an air base near Dubai used by Australia, with no injuries in the strike on the Al Minhad Air Base, which the Australians have long used as a staging hub for military operations in the Middle East.Australia's defense minister said all defense personnel were accounted for and safe, while the Australian government supports the US-Israeli action but was not involved in the operation's planning or execution.
The conflict has metastasised rapidly across the region and into the broader global economy.The conflict led to immediate surges in oil and gas prices, widespread disruptions in aviation and tourism, and has disrupted approximately 20 per cent of global oil supplies transiting the Strait of Hormuz, causing prices on the Brent Crude oil market to rise from around $70 to over $80 per barrel within days.Qatar Airways said its flights would remain temporarily suspended due to the closure of the country's airspace, resuming operations once the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority announces the safe reopening of Qatari airspace.
The human toll is mounting.Preliminary figures show 1,332 dead in Iran, at least 11 in Israel, six US soldiers and nine killed in Gulf states. Iran's retaliatory campaign has been sustained and coordinated.Iran has launched 500 missiles and 2,000 drones during the first four days of hostilities, according to Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of CENTCOM.
What is less widely reported in Australia is the direct involvement of Australian nationals in the fighting itself.Iranian drones have struck an air base near Dubai used by Australia, Australia's defense minister confirmed. Reports indicate Australians are taking active roles in the conflict, with one account noting: "With everything that happened in Bondi, it gave me more motivation to be here." The reference points to the lingering aftermath of the December 2023 Bondi Junction attack, which killed six people and wounded ten others.
If Iran survives the initial shock, the nation that emerges will likely be fundamentally different: less calculated and probably more violent, with the shift away from Khamenei's doctrine of "strategic patience." For Australia, the implications extend beyond immediate security concerns at Al Minhad.Analysts projected potential global inflation increases and risks of recession if disruptions persisted, particularly through closures of key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
For Australia's regional position, the escalation presents a complex challenge.The Albanese government's statements regarding the legality of the US and Israeli conduct have been in the "say nothing" category, with the government saying any legal justification needs to be made by the US and Israel. Yet Australia's deep integration into the US alliance through defence arrangements like AUKUS leaves limited room for distance.A ceasefire is currently in place as of the latest reports, though conditions remain volatile and the situation continues to shift daily.
The question now facing Australian policymakers is whether the conflict will widen further.Israel authorised a ground invasion of Lebanon on 3 March, with Israeli officials warning its attacks against Iran could become more intense and involve a deeper ground invasion. For Canberra, the calculus involves weighing immediate alliance obligations against long-term economic stability and the sobering reality that more Australians may become casualties in a conflict that shows no clear endpoint.