Here's a stat that might surprise you: of the five matches scheduled across AFL's Opening Round this weekend, only one offers what meteorologists would call genuinely ideal footy conditions. The rest are playing against a backdrop of tropical lows, moisture-laden airmasses, and the very real prospect of lightning delays. Weather forecaster Jane Bunn, reporting for 7News, has broken down what fans and clubs can expect at each venue.
The round gets underway on Thursday evening at the SCG, where the Sydney Swans host Carlton. Bunn forecasts sunshine and temperatures in the high 20s for most of the day, easing to the mid 20s by game time. While Wednesday's storm risk for the red carpet season launch could make things interesting, that threat dissipates by Thursday. No wet weather is expected, and the night should be humid but pleasant. It is, she says, the second-best set of conditions in the round.
Friday night's match is where conditions become genuinely challenging. The Gold Coast Suns host Geelong at People First Stadium in Carrara, and the forecast is, frankly, damp. A confluence of onshore winds, a tropical low to the north, and a trough to the west creates what Bunn describes as the perfect environment for wet weather. Showers are highly likely throughout the evening, with accumulated totals possibly reaching 10 to 20mm. The intermittent, hit-and-miss nature of tropical showers means the surface could be bone dry one moment and sodden the next. Humidity will be extreme, temperatures sitting in the mid 20s with a tropical feel that makes the mercury feel deceiving. For Geelong, a southern club used to cooler conditions, the acclimatisation challenge is real.
Context matters here: the weather pattern affecting southeast Queensland is forecast to persist into Saturday, meaning the Brisbane Lions' home clash with the Western Bulldogs at the Gabba faces the same tropical combination. The same onshore winds, the same low to the north, the same trough to the west. For a slippery, high-humidity evening game, both teams will need to adjust their ball-in-hand game accordingly. When you dig into the data on wet-weather footy, it consistently suppresses scoring and rewards teams with a physical, contested approach over those who rely on precise handball and long kicking chains.
Saturday also features the GWS Giants hosting Hawthorn at ENGIE Stadium in a twilight fixture. A trough is forecast to arrive in the Sydney area during the evening, meaning most of the wet weather is expected to hold off until later in the night. But Bunn cautions that the risk includes thunderstorms, which means a AFL-mandated lightning delay becomes a genuine possibility if storms fire before the final siren. Temperatures start in the high 20s and fall to the low 20s across the course of the evening.
Beyond the scoreboard, the real story of Opening Round 2025 is Sunday's finale at the MCG, where St Kilda take on Collingwood. Bunn singles it out as the only game with perfect conditions when humidity is factored in. Melbourne is forecast for lots of sunshine and a top in the mid 20s, cooling to the high teens by game time with light to moderate south to southeasterly winds. For players and fans alike, it is as good as a late-summer evening at the 'G gets.
The broader meteorological picture reflects a southeast Queensland weather pattern that has been building across the region after a week of relative calm. When tropical systems interact with coastal troughs, the results are rarely predictable and often dramatic. For clubs travelling north this weekend, preparation for wet and humid conditions is not optional; it is essential. The numbers suggest teams that can control the ball in adverse conditions hold a measurable advantage in matches affected by rain, a factor that coaches and selectors would be wise to weigh as final squads are confirmed.
For fans attending games in Queensland or at ENGIE Stadium, the practical advice is simple: check the Bureau of Meteorology forecast close to game time, bring rain gear, and remember that in tropical conditions the weather can shift in minutes. And if Sunday's MCG fixture is any guide, the season's best-looking game may well be saving itself for last.