The strategic calculus that governs global oil markets rarely stays offshore for long. Within days of joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggering a near-total halt in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Brisbane's fuel retailers had already moved to lift prices sharply, drawing the scrutiny of Queensland's peak motoring body and, now, the nation's competition regulator.
The Royal Automobile Club of Queensland (RACQ) referred major fuel retailers to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) on 4 March after prices in South East Queensland surged well beyond what market conditions could justify. As at 9am on 3 March, the highest price for regular unleaded in South East Queensland was 213.9 cents per litre. By 10am that day, around 40 sites had already hiked to 219.9 cents per litre, and by the following morning a total of 259 sites — representing roughly 45 per cent of the market — had followed suit.
RACQ head of public policy Dr Michael Kane said that accounting for all market factors, the group would expect prices to spike at an absolute maximum of 207 to 209 cents per litre. "We're currently in the price hike phase of the fuel cycle and while we usually see prices jump, an almost 60 cent hike is unjustified and unfair," Kane said.
The RACQ was pointed in its diagnosis: "We're seeing a lot of blame for these higher prices fall on international factors, like the conflict in the Middle East and volatile global oil prices, but these haven't led to a significant increase in wholesale fuel prices, so the massive spike at the bowser doesn't add up." That view was reinforced by the RACQ's principal economic and affordability specialist, Dr Ian Jeffreys, who said the jump in price appeared unjustified and seemingly opportunistic. "There is no good reason for fuel companies to be increasing their prices just days after conflict broke out in the region," Jeffreys said. "Yes, we've seen an increase in the global oil price, but that usually takes around two weeks to flow through to bowsers here in Australia, not two days."
The accusation of profiteering has found resonance beyond Queensland. As 9News reports, NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury was equally direct, saying oil companies were "using the Middle East crisis as an excuse to jack up margins" across Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Notably, the consumer watchdog has observed that prices in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth were decreasing or near the bottom of their respective cycles at the time Brisbane's prices were rising. According to 9News, Adelaide and Perth remained at comparatively modest averages of 185 cents and 189.1 cents per litre respectively while Brisbane registered the highest average of the three east coast capitals.
The geopolitical backdrop is, to be clear, genuinely serious. The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis began on 28 February following joint US-Israeli military strikes on Iran, including the killing of supreme leader Ali Khamenei. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage through the strait, leading to an effective halt in shipping traffic. Roughly 13 million barrels per day passed through the waterway in 2025, representing about 31 per cent of all seaborne crude flows, according to energy consulting firm Kpler. Brent crude increased by between 10 and 13 per cent in initial trading following the disruption, with analysts forecasting potential rises to $100 per barrel or higher if the disruption persists.
The question for Australian consumers is whether that global shock has any immediate bearing on domestic bowser prices. The answer, according to both the RACQ and the federal government, is that it does not, at least not yet. The RACQ's position is clear: global oil price increases typically take around two weeks to flow through to Australian retail prices, making any spike in the days immediately following the outbreak of conflict difficult to justify on commercial grounds. Energy Minister Chris Bowen, as reported by 9News, urged motorists not to rush to service stations, stating that Australia holds a 34-day supply of diesel and a 36-day supply of unleaded petrol, not counting what is already in the retail network.
There is a reasonable counter-argument available to the industry. Global commodity markets are inherently forward-looking, and retailers who purchase fuel stocks must price in anticipated cost increases to protect their margins. Analysts have noted the prospect of oil crossing $100 per barrel if disruptions persist, a scenario that would represent a significant cost increase flowing through to Australian wholesalers in weeks. From a purely commercial perspective, pricing ahead of a foreseeable cost increase is not inherently improper. What makes the Brisbane situation harder to defend, however, is the timing: Queensland's peak motoring body has called out major fuel retailers for pumping up their prices less than three days after conflict broke out in the Middle East. That speed is difficult to reconcile with any plausible account of supply costs already rising at the wholesale level.
Australia's fuel supply exposure also deserves careful scrutiny. ACAPMA CEO Rowan Lee told the ABC that Australia draws very little oil directly from the Middle East, with over half of the country's fuel coming via Singapore, fed by oil from South Korea, Japan, Brunei, Malaysia and India. That assessment broadly aligns with the more complex picture of regional energy flows: approximately 84 per cent of crude oil and condensate moving through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asian markets in 2024, with China, India, Japan and South Korea accounting for a combined 69 per cent of all Hormuz crude flows. A protracted closure would therefore tighten Asian oil markets broadly, placing upward pressure on the Singapore refining hub from which Australia sources much of its refined fuel — even if Australian supply lines are not directly severed.
The RACQ is using the current episode to press the case for structural market reform in Queensland. One proposal the organisation has advanced is a five-cent-per-litre daily cap on price increases to prevent overnight spikes, a reform the Queensland Government confirmed it was considering earlier this year. RACQ research shows Greater Brisbane's fuel price cycle has stretched to an average of 38 days, five times longer than in 2010. In 2010, motorists had an opportunity to fill up at a cheaper price every week; now there are only around nine such opportunities per year. Brisbane motorists already paid more for unleaded last year than drivers in any other Australian capital, with Brisbane's 2025 average of 185.2 cents per litre nearly 11 cents above Perth's average of 174.3 cents per litre.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers wrote to the ACCC on 3 March requesting it monitor for petrol stations using Middle East tensions as an excuse to hike prices beyond what is warranted, noting that global oil prices had risen by more than 25 per cent since the start of June — from around $62 per barrel to roughly $79 at the start of the current week — before moderating following a ceasefire announcement.
The present episode reveals a genuine tension at the heart of fuel pricing policy: market mechanisms that theoretically reward competition can, under conditions of acute consumer anxiety and geopolitical uncertainty, produce outcomes that look, and may in fact be, exploitative. Reasonable observers can disagree about where the line falls between prudent commercial hedging and opportunism. What is harder to dispute is that Brisbane motorists have for years borne a disproportionate share of fuel cost volatility compared to their counterparts in other capitals. Whether the current crisis provides the political catalyst for the regulatory reform the RACQ has long sought remains to be seen, but the referral to the ACCC at least puts the question of market conduct squarely on the record.