From Singapore: When a company targets a valuation of more than US$1.75 trillion for its public debut, the word "blockbuster" barely covers it. According to Bloomberg, SpaceX is preparing to file confidentially with the US Securities and Exchange Commission as soon as this month, keeping it on track for a June listing that would shatter every record in IPO history. The numbers alone demand attention from investors in Sydney, Singapore, and everywhere in between.
The scale is almost difficult to internalise. SpaceX, the Starbase, Texas-based rocket and satellite company led by Elon Musk, is targeting an SEC draft registration in March, which would keep it on course for a June listing. People familiar with the deliberations say the company could seek a valuation of more than $1.75 trillion. For context, that would generate up to $50 billion and surpass Saudi Aramco's $29 billion debut in 2019 as the largest IPO in history.
The case for the listing rests heavily on one business unit. According to Payload Space, $10.4 billion of SpaceX's $15 billion in 2025 revenue came from Starlink satellite internet, representing 69 per cent of total sales. In 2026, Payload forecasts Starlink revenue will grow 80 per cent to $18.7 billion, meaning Starlink will account for approximately 79 per cent of SpaceX's total revenue. The rocket launches that made SpaceX famous are increasingly a supporting act to what is, in revenue terms, a global internet service provider. Although the Falcon and Starship launch vehicles generate significant media attention, the valuation is driven almost entirely by the Starlink business unit; the launch division functions effectively as a loss leader to deploy infrastructure, while Starlink operates with software-like margins once the assets are in orbit.
The strategic rationale behind going public now is relatively clear. In a memo, SpaceX said it is preparing for a possible IPO in 2026 aimed at funding an "insane flight rate" for its developmental Starship rocket, artificial intelligence data centres in space, and a base on the moon. In February 2026, SpaceX formally acquired Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company xAI in an all-stock deal that structured xAI as a wholly owned subsidiary, with the combined private valuation reported at about $1.25 trillion. The xAI merger consolidates multiple high-growth technology assets under one balance sheet ahead of a public listing, though analysts note it also imports significant complexity.
For Australian investors and superannuation funds with exposure to global technology, the signal is worth heeding. Starlink has been aggressively growing its subscriber base in this region: Payload Space points out that "2025 was the year of the free terminal" at Starlink, as the company gave away terminals for free in many US, European, Australian, and Canadian markets. Subscriber growth globally has been striking: Starlink subscribers doubled from 2.3 million at the end of 2023 to 4.6 million at the end of 2024, doubled again to 9.2 million through the end of 2025, and could easily double yet again to 18.4 million in 2026, according to Payload. For Australian rural and remote communities, Starlink is already a utility in all but name.
The governance problem that won't go away
Investor enthusiasm should, however, be tempered by a close reading of the proposed share structure. SpaceX is considering a dual-class share structure in its planned IPO, mirroring a strategy Musk floated for Tesla; a two-tier structure would give select shareholders stock with extra voting power, allowing insiders such as Musk to maintain control of the company even with a minority stake. The structure typically gives founders and insiders 10 or even 20 votes for each of their shares compared with only one vote for ordinary shares, which critics say makes them less accountable.
SpaceX's existing board composition raises related questions. That board composition could expose SpaceX to pressure from investors and potential litigation if it went public; PitchBook's analyst describes it as "heavily weighted toward insiders and Musk loyalists," with a meaningful expansion of truly independent board members expected ahead of any listing. The company is also fighting a case with the National Labor Relations Board over allegations from eight engineers who say they were fired for signing an open letter that criticised Musk; in March 2025, an appeals court determined the case could proceed.
Those sceptical of the dual-class model are not without a point. Musk's management attention is divided across Tesla, xAI, the social media platform X, and his role in the US government's Department of Government Efficiency. The company's history of aggressive timelines and Musk's deep involvement across multiple high-profile ventures raises questions about management focus and capital allocation priorities. Public shareholders would have little structural recourse if they disagreed with his direction.
The valuation arithmetic is demanding
Even setting governance aside, the numbers require a leap of faith. Relative to estimated revenue, a $1.5 trillion IPO would value SpaceX at somewhere between 62 and 68 times sales, significantly more than the 12.2 times sales the shares fetched on the private market in 2019. Historically, companies with at least $100 million in sales and a price-to-sales ratio greater than 40 have been disappointments for investors. The bulls counter that SpaceX's revenue growth rate justifies a premium: between 2018 and 2025, SpaceX grew its annual revenue at approximately 33 per cent per year, and 2026 estimates imply growth is actually accelerating past 50 per cent.
The xAI merger adds complexity because it integrates an AI business with significant cash burn. Despite SpaceX's strong financial performance, xAI's significant cash burn presents integration risks, potentially altering investor perception of the combined entity. There is also the Bitcoin factor: SpaceX holds about 8,285 bitcoin in custody, a stake now worth roughly $545 million after a $235 million decline in value over recent months; SpaceX's future earnings reports will expose investors to bitcoin-driven paper gains and losses, echoing Tesla's experience with crypto-related volatility.
A pragmatic read
The SpaceX IPO is genuinely exciting — and genuinely complicated. The underlying business, anchored by Starlink's recurring subscription revenue and formidable launch economics, is real and growing fast. There are legitimate grounds to value it at a premium to legacy aerospace companies. The ambitions around space-based AI data centres and lunar factories, however, remain commercially unproven and capital-intensive on a scale that makes even Starlink's investment profile look modest.
For Australian super funds and retail investors trying to access shares at listing, retail investors probably won't access the offer price, which is typically reserved for institutions. Those who can get in should think carefully about what they are buying: an extraordinary business wrapped in a governance structure that concentrates power, attached to a set of moon-shot plans whose timelines are, by any honest assessment, uncertain. The prudent approach is to let the prospectus do its work, scrutinise the actual financials when they are disclosed, and resist the pull of the hype cycle that will inevitably build toward listing day.