From Washington: In a development that will reverberate across the Pacific, the Israel Defence Forces have delivered a blunt message to Australia as the Middle East descends into its most serious military conflagration in decades: what is happening in the region right now is not someone else's problem.
"It could be an Australian problem tomorrow."The warning, reported by 7News, comes as a US-Israeli military campaign has fundamentally altered the strategic order of the Middle East in the space of days.
On 28 February, joint US and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes on Iran in an operation codenamed Roaring Lion by Israel and Epic Fury by the United States. The operation targeted key officials, military commanders and facilities, and included the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran responded by launching hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel and targets across the Persian Gulf. Countries across the Middle East, including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, have experienced strikes or missile interceptions.
On 2 March, Hezbollah launched a missile attack on Israel, prompting a series of Israeli air strikes in Lebanon, despite the ceasefire agreement of 2024 and Lebanese government attempts to disarm the group. QatarEnergy, one of the world's top natural gas producers, announced it would halt liquefied natural gas production after Iranian attacks struck its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed sites.
For Australians, the crisis is already producing tangible consequences. Foreign Minister Penny Wong revealed that around 115,000 Australians are stranded in the war zone as airspaces remain closed. Wong upgraded Australia's travel advice to 'Do Not Travel' for Israel, Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Air travel to the Middle East, a major transit hub for Australians travelling to Asia and Europe, was disrupted, with Etihad and Emirates cancelling flights from Australia. DFAT opened its crisis portal for Australians in the UAE, Qatar, Israel and Iran to provide timely information and consular support.
The Albanese government has drawn a clear line on military involvement. Foreign Minister Wong told Channel Nine: "Australia is not central to the issues in the Middle East. We didn't participate in these strikes and we wouldn't anticipate participating in the future." Defence Minister Richard Marles confirmed the government had taken measures for the safety of about 100 Australian defence personnel based at the Al Minhad Air Base near Dubai, used to support UN missions.
Yet the IDF's warning carries more context than it might first appear. Foreign Minister Wong herself acknowledged that Iran directed at least two attacks on Australian soil in 2024, targeting the Jewish community in acts intended to create fear and divide society, leading the government to expel Iran's ambassador, suspend operations at Australia's embassy in Tehran, and list the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a state sponsor of terrorism. The Albanese government has sanctioned more than 200 Iranian-linked individuals, including 100 linked to the IRGC, in what Wong described as stronger action against Iran than any previous Australian government.
The opposition has not been silent. Liberal senators have called on the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade to approve the use of military planes for repatriation, a call Wong rejected on the grounds that airspace closures make any such operation impossible. The Greens, meanwhile, have pushed back on the government's posture of qualified support for the strikes. Greens senator David Shoebridge was critical after Wong declined to assess the legal basis for the US-Israeli strikes, with Shoebridge arguing that international law "doesn't enforce itself" and required countries like Australia to back it in.
The broader strategic picture presents genuine complexity. Many of Iran's regional allies have been significantly weakened, primarily by Israeli military action since 2023, while joint US-Israeli strikes over 12 days in 2025 already undermined Iran's defences and nuclear programme. Advocates for the strikes argue that a nuclear-armed Iran posed an existential threat not just to Israel but to the entire rules-based order that underpins Australian security. Wong acknowledged this position directly, stating the international community had been clear that the Iranian regime could never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, and that Australia supports action to prevent Iran from threatening international peace and security.
Those opposed to the intervention counter that the human cost is already catastrophic, the legal basis contested, and the risk of the conflict spreading beyond the region very real. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the US-Israeli strikes on Iran risk "igniting a chain of events that nobody can control" in one of the world's most volatile regions. The closure of key aviation corridors has already shown that economic disruption does not respect national borders.
Australia's position, holding firm to non-participation while quietly supporting the nuclear-containment objective, is a measured one. It reflects a government trying to balance alliance obligations with the kind of independent foreign policy Australian voters expect. Whether that balance holds depends, in no small part, on whether the IDF's warning about tomorrow proves prescient.