From London: As Australians woke this week, one of the most severe aviation crises since the Covid-19 pandemic was already reshaping the skies above the Middle East. The joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran that began on 28 February, and Tehran's retaliatory attacks across the Gulf, have created a cascading travel emergency that is being felt from Sydney Airport to Bali's Ngurah Rai terminal.
For the hundreds of thousands of Australians with flights transiting Dubai, Doha or Abu Dhabi, the instinct to cancel immediately is understandable. Aviation experts are urging them to resist it. The Australian Travel Industry Association's chief executive, Dean Long, put it plainly:
"Do not cancel arrangements without first seeking professional advice. Unless you are travelling in the next 48 hours and have not been contacted, hold off contacting your travel agent right now to allow them to support those currently caught up in, and who are stranded, delayed and dealing with cancellations."
The scale of the disruption is genuinely extraordinary. At least eight states declared their airspace closed as the conflict erupted, including Iran, Israel, Iraq, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Flightradar24 reported more than 3,400 flights cancelled on 1 March alone across seven airports in the Middle East, with airspace across much of the region remaining closed over security concerns. By Monday, more than 80 per cent of the flights scheduled to and from Dubai and more than half of those to and from Abu Dhabi remained cancelled, according to flight tracking website FlightAware.
UK-based aviation consultant John Strickland called the disruption "pretty unprecedented", noting that Gulf carriers are "so fundamental to much of global aviation, not least east-west flows between Europe and Asia", and that he could not recall a comparable situation outside the pandemic where Gulf hubs had been taken out of action on this scale. The timing is compounding an existing problem: the Middle East has become an important routing option for flights between Europe and Asia precisely because Russian and Ukrainian airspace remains closed to most airlines due to that ongoing war.
For Canberra, the implications are serious. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said around 115,000 Australians are currently in the Middle East region, and that resumption of commercial flights would be the government's preferred method of repatriation given the scale of the problem. DFAT has confirmed that evacuation flights are not yet arranged, and any return will depend on the resumption of commercial air services once safety conditions improve. Australians already in the region are advised by Smartraveller to stay in a safe place, limit movements, and maintain supplies of food, water and medication.
As of Monday, DFAT's advice included 'do not travel' ratings for Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, the UAE, Iran, Iraq, Palestine, Syria and Yemen. Airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, all major hubs for travel between Australia and Europe, remain closed, with both Dubai International and Abu Dhabi airports having sustained damage, and flights from Australia to Europe through the Gulf turned back, diverted or cancelled.
The practical guidance for Australians with future bookings is to monitor the situation carefully rather than act in haste. Major carriers have issued flexible waivers precisely to avoid a rush of cancellations. Qantas is offering fee-free refunds, fee-free flight credits and fee-free date changes within ten days of the original travel date on flights to, from or via the UAE, Qatar, Israel, Jordan and Oman, for tickets issued on or before 1 March 2026. Emirates customers booked to travel before or on 5 March can rebook on an alternate flight to their intended destination for travel on or before 20 March, or request a refund. At least 14 Virgin Australia services to Doha were cancelled on Sunday and Monday, with four VA flights also forced to turn back to Australia after take-off.
There is a significant insurance trap awaiting passengers who cancel independently without waiting for an official airline cancellation. The Insurance Council of Australia has confirmed that most travel insurance policies exclude losses arising from war or armed conflict, though some policies may cover limited cancellation costs if DFAT upgrades its advice to 'do not travel' after a trip is booked and the policy purchased. Several insurers now classify the situation as a "known event", meaning policies purchased after specified dates are unlikely to cover claims arising from this conflict. The lesson here is stark: passengers who cancel on their own terms, rather than waiting for the airline to act, may forfeit any entitlement to a refund entirely.
The crisis extends well beyond the aviation sector. Shipping giants have suspended operations through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz following the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, with Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM all issuing fresh guidance amid the deteriorating security situation. According to supply chain firm Flexport, as reported by The Register, closure of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in the disruption of global oil and gas shipment, and transit times between Asia and Europe are expected to increase by ten to fourteen days as vessels detour around the Cape of Good Hope. Freight forwarders are already reporting early signs of a capacity squeeze on high-value belly-hold cargo, with spot rates out of Australia to Europe up 12 per cent since Friday.
The geopolitical picture remains genuinely uncertain, and reasonable people can differ on how long this disruption will last. President Trump has outlined a four-week timetable for the conflict, though Iran's leadership has shown no sign of accepting terms quickly. Trump has said the operation is "ahead of schedule" but has not laid out what his exact hopes are for the conflict, and has indicated he is prepared to keep operations going for a long time if necessary. The E3 powers, Britain, France and Germany, have signalled they could back defensive measures against Iranian drone and missile attacks, according to reporting from Chatham House, adding a further layer of complexity to any de-escalation pathway.
For Australians with departures weeks away, the message from industry professionals is clear: wait, watch, and let the airlines and Smartraveller guide your decision. Panic-cancelling a booking today could mean forfeiting a refund you would otherwise receive if the airline cancels first. In a crisis this fluid, patience is not merely a virtue; it is the financially prudent choice.