From Singapore: Australian troops stationed at a key Gulf airbase came under direct attack over the weekend, Defence Minister Richard Marles has confirmed, marking one of the most significant threats to Australian Defence Force personnel in recent years. Marles confirmed that an airbase housing Australian soldiers was hit by a military strike, adding that all Australian personnel at Al Minhad Air Base near Dubai are "safe and accounted for."
Al Minhad, located approximately 24 kilometres south of Dubai, is operated by the UAE Air Force and currently serves as the headquarters of the Australian Defence Force's Joint Task Force 633, supporting Australian operations across the Middle East. The base has underpinned ADF missions and contingencies in the region since 2003, operating under various names before becoming Operation Accordion in 2014. Marles noted Australia has more than 100 personnel deployed across the Middle East.
The defence minister said the attack appeared to have been carried out by "some drones" on the "first night" of the US and Israeli-led campaign against Iran. That campaign, which began on 28 February, killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and struck military, nuclear, and command infrastructure across the country. Iran's response was immediate and broad.
In response to the joint attack by the United States and Israel, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones towards its neighbours, with Tehran targeting Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates within 36 hours. "For the first time in history, all the GCC states were targeted by the same actor within 24 hours. Their long-standing nightmare scenario has happened," said Sinem Cengiz, a researcher at Qatar University's Gulf Studies Centre and a non-resident fellow at Gulf International Forum, in comments to Breaking Defense.
Three people were killed and 58 injured after Iran launched 165 ballistic missiles, 541 drones, and two cruise missiles on the UAE since Saturday, according to the UAE's defence ministry. Those killed were nationals of Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh, who died as a result of Iranian drones that made it through UAE air defences. While ostensibly targeting US bases, weapons struck airports and civilian buildings across the region.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had targeted four US bases in the Middle East: Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE, and the US Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Alongside Al Minhad, the strikes illustrated the scale of Iran's retaliatory reach across a region that hosts allied military infrastructure from Australia, France, the UK, and the United States.
A Regional Shock to Shipping and Energy
For Australian exporters, the signal is stark. The conflict has triggered what analysts at market intelligence firm Kpler describe as an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping. Tanker traffic has dropped by approximately 70 per cent, with over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait to avoid the risks. According to the US Energy Information Administration, about 20 million barrels of oil, worth approximately $500 billion in annual global energy trade, transited the strait each day in 2024.
Oil prices surged, with Brent crude rising by up to 13 per cent to $82 per barrel, amid fears of prolonged supply shortages that could push prices toward $100 per barrel. The EIA estimated that in 2024, 84 per cent of crude oil and condensate shipments transiting the strait headed to Asian markets, with a similar pattern in LNG volumes. Those are Australia's primary trade partners and commodity buyers; any sustained price surge or supply disruption will ripple directly into Australian export earnings and regional economic stability.
Qatar, one of the world's biggest exporters of liquefied natural gas, has halted production, with no prospect of being able to ship safely through the chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. For Australian LNG producers competing in the same Asian markets, this disruption creates a complex mix of short-term price opportunity and longer-term supply chain uncertainty.
Beyond energy, the disruption to Dubai's logistics network has broad commercial consequences. The UAE serves as the primary distribution hub for technology goods, consumer products, and sea cargo across the wider Middle East. Ports such as Jebel Ali and Khor Fakkan function as major transshipment hubs in global trade networks. The crisis has disrupted global energy supplies, stranding tankers and forcing reroutes around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, which adds weeks to transit times and increases costs significantly. According to logistics firm Flexport, transit times between Asia and Europe on affected routes are increasing by 10 to 14 days.
The Broader Strategic Question
The attack on Al Minhad puts Australia's regional force posture into sharp focus. Defence analysts have noted that the conflict has shown structural vulnerabilities: despite decades of heavy defence spending, Gulf states remain highly exposed to missile and drone warfare, with air defence systems capable of intercepting threats but not at scale or low cost. The question for Canberra is whether a long-term military headquarters in the Gulf, while valuable for regional reach and coalition interoperability, now carries risks that require fresh strategic assessment.
Critics of Australia's posture in the region argue the country should reassess whether permanent forward basing in a conflict zone serves the national interest, particularly given the scale of Iran's retaliatory capability. That is a legitimate concern. The ADF's presence at Al Minhad has, however, provided Australia with unmatched visibility and influence across Middle East operations for more than two decades, and its value to coalition partners and Australian strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific cannot be easily replicated from further afield.
Senior analysts have warned that if Iranian attacks continue, Gulf Arab states may eventually participate in counter-attacks against Iran. "The UAE in particular would be one to watch," said Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the RANE Network, adding that Gulf states need to restore deterrence against Iran. An escalation of that kind would put Australian personnel in the middle of a far more complex conflict than any Operation Accordion mandate anticipated.
President Trump has suggested the conflict could run well beyond the initial four-to-five-week estimate, telling reporters the United States was "substantially ahead" of its time projections but had capability to go considerably longer. Foreign Minister Penny Wong has said Australia is unlikely to send military support to the Middle East beyond what is already deployed. That is a measured position, and one that reflects the genuine complexity of Australia's interests: security alliance obligations on one side, and the economic imperative of preserving trade access and energy market stability across Asia on the other. Reasonable people will disagree on where exactly that line should be drawn, but the case for careful, evidence-based decision-making has rarely been more apparent.