There are few things AFL chief executive Andrew Dillon enjoys more than pointing to a crowd figure that shuts down an argument. Standing in Sydney on Monday to launch the 2026 season, he had two of them ready to go.
Dillon defended the Opening Round concept and emphasised that State of Origin is here to stay after its recent successful revival. The comments came with the weight of attendance data behind them. The last two round ones have been the two highest attended rounds in AFL history, with more than 400,000 fans attending each year and last year's tally reaching a record 451,000.
The 2026 Opening Round includes home games for all four NSW and Queensland clubs, with just one match in Victoria. That Victorian match, a St Kilda versus Collingwood clash at the MCG on Sunday night, marks the first time Opening Round has included a Victorian fixture. It is a concession to longstanding criticism from Melbourne's footy heartland, and a sign that the AFL is at least listening, even if it is not retreating.
The northern expansion strategy is producing measurable results. Dillon credited Opening Round with growing participation across NSW and Queensland, contributing to a record 625,000 participants nationally in 2025, with NSW alone recording a 10 per cent year-on-year increase. Queensland has surged beyond 91,000 participants and now ranks second nationally behind Victoria. These are not vanity statistics; they represent a genuine shift in the game's geographic footprint.
The State of Origin revival added another feather to Dillon's cap. A State of Origin match took place for the first time since 1999 in February 2026, with Western Australia hosting Victoria at Optus Stadium. Victoria won the match by 24 points. Tickets sold out, and Dillon said the result demonstrated the passion fans hold for one of football's most iconic traditions. The concept had last been contested at elite level in 1999, when Victoria played South Australia at the MCG.
From a strategic standpoint, there is a coherent commercial logic to what the AFL is doing. Running an Opening Round that concentrates games in Sydney and Brisbane creates a media moment in markets where AFL is competing against rugby league and rugby union for hearts, eyeballs, and junior participants. Opening Round was introduced to create a standalone marquee window, particularly for the northern markets of NSW and Queensland, where the AFL continues to push for growth against rugby codes. The numbers suggest it is working. The argument for continuing is grounded in evidence, not ideology.
Yet the critics are not without substance. Many have queried the absence of a full round of fixtures and the lack of games in Victoria, Perth, and Adelaide. When you alter the structure of the season, even slightly, you are not just adjusting a fixture; you are adjusting a rhythm that supporters have lived with for decades. There is a legitimate argument that a format designed primarily to grow the game in new markets does so at the cost of the experience for existing fans in traditional strongholds. Opening Round is not failing, but it has not completely won over the broader base either, and until its purpose feels culturally clear rather than merely commercially clear, the debate will continue.
The State of Origin picture is similarly complex. Injury fears and a desire to prioritise the premiership season were among the reasons that helped end Origin in 1999. Those concerns have not evaporated. Players are on managed minutes, there is no round-robin or multi-game series, and the AFL has made no immediate commitment beyond the single Optus Stadium fixture. Whether the Origin revival is real and sustainable, or a perfect storm of novelty, curiosity, location, and timing, remains a genuine question.
Dillon did not shy away from the broader ambitions circling the game either. He recently travelled to India, and while declining to commit to games being played there, said he saw enormous potential for the code. He also flagged the possibility of Australian Rules football featuring in some form at the 2032 Brisbane Olympics, pointing to the 1956 Melbourne Games as a precedent when the sport was an exhibition event. These are expansive ambitions for a code that is still consolidating its foothold north of the Murray.
Dillon also took note of the NRL's competing season-launch strategy. He watched some of the NRL's opening round in Las Vegas, praised the rival code for executing it well over recent years, and then added pointedly: "It's a good way for them to start their season. We do things differently." It was a diplomatic compliment that also drew a clear line in the sand.
The 2026 AFL Opening Round gets under way on Thursday 5 March when the Sydney Swans host Carlton at the SCG, with reigning premiers Brisbane set to unfurl their premiership flag at the Gabba on Saturday night as they begin their title defence against the Western Bulldogs. The season runs through to 26 September, with 18 clubs competing across 25 rounds before a five-week finals series featuring ten clubs for the first time.
The honest read on all of this is that Dillon is making rational bets. The attendance data for Opening Round is real. The sold-out Origin crowd in Perth was real. But one year is not a sufficient sample size; whether the novelty fades, or whether people will care as deeply in three years' time, remains to be seen. Tradition and growth are not always enemies, but they do require careful management. Dillon's confidence is earned by the numbers so far. Whether it is vindicated by the long run is a question only time and attendance figures can answer.