From Washington: In a development that will reverberate across the Pacific for months to come, the United States and Israel killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a coordinated military strike on his Tehran compound on Saturday, 28 February. The 86-year-old cleric, who had ruled the Islamic Republic since 1989, was confirmed dead by Iranian state media early Sunday, which simultaneously announced 40 days of national mourning.
The operation, which the Israeli military described as a preemptive strike, targeted military and government sites across 24 Iranian provinces. Saturday's strikes killed at least 201 people, according to Iranian media reports citing the Red Crescent. Israel's military said top Iranian security officials were among those killed, including the country's defence minister, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the secretary of the Iranian Security Council, a close adviser to Khamenei. Khamenei's daughter-in-law, grandchild, and son-in-law were also killed in the attacks.
President Trump announced the Iranian leader's death on social media, saying Khamenei could not avoid US intelligence and surveillance. Trump indicated the strikes would continue through the week. On Capitol Hill and in allied capitals, the move is being framed as the culmination of years of pressure on a regime that had systematically extended its reach across the region.
The strikes came in the wake of failed talks between Washington and Tehran as Trump pressured Iran to commit to abandoning its pursuit of weapons-grade uranium. The International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitored Iran's programme for years, as well as other nuclear experts, have said there was no evidence that Iran had resumed the enrichment of uranium. That factual contradiction sits at the heart of the debate about whether this operation was strategically sound or a gamble with serious consequences.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the joint operation was designed to remove what he called an "existential threat" posed by Iran, and that it would "create the conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their fate into their own hands."
Australia Backs the Strike, Urges Citizens to Flee
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles issued a joint statement declaring that Australia stands with the people of Iran in their struggle against oppression, and describing the Iranian regime as "a destabilising force" through its ballistic missile and nuclear programmes, support for armed proxies, and acts of violence and intimidation.
Iran directed at least two attacks on Australian soil in 2024, with those acts targeting Australia's Jewish community. In response, the government took the unprecedented steps of expelling Iran's Ambassador, suspending operations at the embassy in Tehran, and listing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a state sponsor of terrorism. The government also sanctioned more than 200 Iranian-linked individuals, including more than 100 linked to the IRGC.
The government statement confirmed Australia's support for the United States acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent Iran continuing to threaten international peace and security. The federal government was careful to note, however, that Australia is unlikely to take part in any military action in Iran.
The practical consequences for Australians in the region are severe. Australians are advised not to travel to Iran and to leave as soon as possible if it is safe to do so, with consular assistance extremely limited. Australia has also issued "do not travel" warnings for Israel, Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has activated its Crisis Centre to provide consular support to Australians in the region. Australians in Iran can register with DFAT's Smartraveller portal to receive direct updates.
More than 1,800 flights have been cancelled globally, and an Iranian drone strike hit Dubai Airport. Officials at Dubai International Airport said four people were injured, while Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi reported one person killed and seven others injured in a drone strike.
Iran Strikes Back, Regime Vows Revenge
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian issued a statement saying Iran views revenge for the attacks by Israel and the United States as its "legitimate right and duty." The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently claimed it would launch its "most-intense offensive operation" in the history of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic, targeting Israel and American bases. Three US soldiers have been killed in action and five seriously wounded after Iranian attacks throughout the Middle East, according to US Central Command.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told an emergency meeting of the Security Council that he deeply regretted that an opportunity for diplomacy had been "squandered." The response from European leaders has been more cautious than that of Washington's traditional allies, with France warning of grave consequences for international peace and security.
A Regime Built to Outlast Its Leader
The harder question for Washington and its partners is what comes next. The premise of the operation appeared to be that Khamenei's sudden elimination would pose a dire threat to the ruling system, and that the goal would be to achieve what happened in Libya after Muammar al-Qaddafi, or in Syria after Bashar al-Assad, where regimes collapsed as soon as their leaders were no longer in power. Iran's history suggests that analogy may not hold.
As the Council on Foreign Relations noted after Khamenei's passing, "taking out Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not the same as regime change. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the regime." The CFR identified three primary trajectories for what follows: regime continuity, military takeover, or regime collapse, but warned that none of these near-term scenarios envisage a positive transformation in the year or so after transition.
The assassination initiates one of the most uncertain transitions in the history of the Islamic Republic, a process deeply influenced by the security establishment. Under Iran's constitution, a Provisional Leadership Council consisting of the president, the Chief Justice, and one cleric selected by the Expediency Discernment Council is mandated to carry out the interim duties of the supreme leader until a permanent successor is selected.
Khamenei did not have an officially declared heir. Instead, an elected body of 88 senior clerics known as the Assembly of Experts will select the next leader. The ruling establishment will want to move quickly to show stability, but it is unclear whether they can risk any gathering given that Trump has vowed the joint bombing campaign will continue in the days ahead.
Among the names circulating as potential successors, Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's 56-year-old son, has long been considered a possibility due to his close ties to the IRGC, but he has never held government office and lacks the senior religious credentials typically expected of the role, with reports from mid-2025 suggesting the Assembly of Experts had excluded him from a confidential shortlist. Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the judiciary chief, could bridge clerical authority and coercive power. Reformist figures remain largely outside the process; former president Hassan Rouhani, whose administration struck the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, was barred from election to the Assembly of Experts in March 2024 by the Guardian Council.
Those celebrating Khamenei's demise both inside Iran and within Australia's large Iranian diaspora community have reason to hope, but also reason to temper their expectations. Iranian-Australian doctor James Younessi, based in Sydney, said he had heard stories of people celebrating in the streets, with people "jubilating, singing, dancing, passing chocolates and lollies to one another," but he said he would have preferred to see Khamenei face trial for his crimes rather than be killed.
That ambivalence captures the complexity of this moment. The United States and Israel have demonstrated an extraordinary capacity and willingness to strike at the very top of an adversary government. Whether that translates into a safer region depends on what fills the void, and on that question, history offers few comfortable precedents. For Australian policymakers, the alliance calculus behind Canberra's public support for the strikes is clear, informed by Iran's documented interference on Australian soil and the shared commitment to preventing nuclear proliferation. The harder reckoning, for Washington and its allies alike, is that military power can remove a leader but cannot write the chapter that follows. For the AUKUS alliance, how that chapter unfolds in Tehran will shape the strategic environment in which Australia must operate for years to come.
Australians seeking consular assistance or travel updates can visit Smartraveller or contact DFAT's Consular Emergency Centre on 1300 555 135 (in Australia) or +61 2 6261 3305 (from overseas). The full joint statement from Prime Minister Albanese and Deputy Prime Minister Marles is available on the Australian Foreign Minister's official website. The International Atomic Energy Agency continues to monitor developments related to Iran's nuclear programme.