From Dubai: In 37 years as the Islamic Republic's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei survived sanctions, assassinations of his generals, a pandemic, a collapsing currency, and the largest domestic protests since the 1979 revolution. He did not survive Saturday morning.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, was killed in a joint American-Israeli operation targeting Iran, Iran's state media has confirmed. Khamenei was killed while he was in his office; Iranian state media reported that he was "martyred at his workplace in the Beit Rahbari," his compound in Tehran. Israel says its opening strikes decimated the chain of command, killing seven senior defence and intelligence officials and targeting 30 top military and civilian leaders overall.
The operation, codenamed Roaring Lion by Israel and Operation Epic Fury by the United States Department of Defense, targeted key officials, military commanders, and facilities. Israel's military said that top Iranian security officials were among those killed, including the country's defence minister, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the secretary of the Iranian Security Council. An Iranian state media presenter broke down in tears on air as he announced Khamenei had "tasted the drink of martyrdom," according to 9News, with the sound of colleagues weeping heard off-camera.
Hours earlier, Trump posted on Truth Social that Israel, with US support, had killed Khamenei. "The people that make all the decisions, most of them are gone," Trump told NBC News in a phone call, adding that "a large amount of leadership" in Iran was also killed. Prime Minister Netanyahu said the goal of the joint US-Israeli attack was to "remove the existential threat posed by the terrorist regime in Iran," adding: "Our joint action will create the conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands."
A Crackdown That Set the Stage
To understand what brought the world to this point, you have to go back several months. Beginning in late December 2025, massive nationwide anti-government protests erupted in Iran, driven largely by economic crisis, the collapse of the rial, and rising prices. The protests, which included calls for regime change, became the largest in scale since the 1979 revolution, spreading to over 100 cities across the country. After security forces began their crackdown, Khamenei took a hard line against the protests in a speech on 9 January, accusing demonstrators of vandalising "their own country just to please the president of the United States."
The Iranian government responded with violent repression, including massacres of protesters, with the deadliest incidents occurring on 8 and 10 January 2026; the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency estimated the death toll at 7,000, the Iranian government said the death toll was 3,117, while Donald Trump and others said the death toll was 32,000 people. Those numbers, deeply contested and impossible to independently verify, point to the single most important factor behind the military operation: the Albanese government, like its counterparts in Washington and Jerusalem, concluded that diplomacy with Tehran had run its course.
Just before the strikes began, on 27 February 2026, Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi said a "breakthrough" had been reached and Iran had agreed both to never stockpile enriched uranium and to full verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency; further, Iran had agreed to irreversibly downgrade its current enriched uranium to "the lowest level possible." Al-Busaidi said peace was "within reach." The strikes came the following morning regardless — a decision that will be scrutinised for years by historians and international law scholars alike.
Australia's Position
Australia "stands with the brave people of Iran", Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong said in a joint statement on Saturday night, as they declared their support for the US actions to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Albanese was pointed in his justification. "Iran directed at least two attacks on Australian soil in 2024. These appalling acts targeting Australia's Jewish community were intended to create fear, divide our society and challenge our sovereignty," he said.
The Smartraveller portal confirmed that military strikes had occurred in Iran, including in Tehran and other major cities, warning of a risk of ongoing reprisal attacks and escalation across the region, with local security situations potentially deteriorating. The Australian embassy in Tehran has been placed in draw-down mode, with dependants already evacuated. Australian carriers Qantas and Virgin have begun re-routing over the Arabian Peninsula, adding 20 to 40 minutes to Europe-bound sectors.
The prime minister's office confirmed he will convene a meeting of the National Security Committee. Australia's alignment with the US and Israel is consistent with its Five Eyes and AUKUS commitments, though it will test relationships with regional partners who view the strikes differently. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi called the US-Israeli attack on Iran "unacceptable" and condemned the "blatant killing of a sovereign leader and the incitement of regime change."
The Energy Shock Looming Over Markets
For Australia's energy sector and broader economy, the most immediate risk is not diplomatic isolation but the price of oil. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route through which about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products pass every day, from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq — roughly 20 per cent of global oil demand. Iran could try to make the Strait of Hormuz unsafe for commercial traffic, which could spike oil prices above $100 per barrel, according to Bob McNally, a former White House energy adviser and founder of Rapidan Energy.
Lombard Odier warned that if US strikes led to a major Iranian response, including prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, it could rattle global energy and financial markets. The Swiss bank estimates that a temporary spike in oil prices to $100 per barrel or beyond is plausible, and global LNG prices would also be affected if Iran moves to block the strait. The strikes come at a time of ample global supplies and comparatively modest oil demand growth, with oil prices recently rising to their highest levels since last summer amid expectations of the conflict; but overall, supply growth has been outpacing demand, giving the White House more manoeuvring room without risking a huge spike in petrol prices.
A Succession Crisis With No Clear Answer
The supreme leader holds ultimate authority over all branches of government, the military, and the judiciary, while also acting as the country's spiritual leader. His sudden death by foreign strike, rather than age or illness, creates circumstances Iran's constitution was designed to manage but has never been tested by. Under Iran's constitution, the job of selecting a new supreme leader falls to its Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of qualified clerics. Until the assembly speaks, a three-member council of the president, the head of the judiciary, and a jurist of the Guardian Council takes over the supreme leader's duties.
One senior official who survived is Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's supreme national security council, former parliament speaker and one of Khamenei's closest confidants. With much of the leadership killed, Larijani has emerged as the most senior civilian official still standing. The New York Times reported earlier this month that Khamenei had put in place detailed plans for his succession and emergency chains of command should he or other top leaders be killed in potential US or Israeli strikes, elevating longtime loyalist Ali Larijani to manage the crisis.
What the Iranian regime intends to do next is not ambiguous. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a statement that Khamenei had been killed "at the hands of the most wicked villains in the world," and declared that the Islamic Republic considers "bloodshed and revenge against the perpetrators and commanders of this historical crime as its duty and legitimate right." The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced it would launch its "most-intense offensive operation," stating that the operation would target Israel and "American terrorist bases."
The Voices Washington Wants to Hear From
The regional dynamics at play are more complex than the headlines suggest. Inside Iran, reaction is not uniform. The contrast of celebrations and mourning highlights deep divides in Iran, according to CNN's live coverage. AP News reported that the government's overwhelming use of violence during the January protests had caused despair among the Iranian public and had given rise to hopes among some citizens for an American attack. That sentiment is real, and it should not be dismissed; but it does not represent all 90 million Iranians, many of whom are now sheltering from the same strikes launched ostensibly in their name.
The question of what comes after Khamenei, should the regime genuinely fracture, carries its own risks. Analysts note that even if the regime were to fall, there exists a range of possible outcomes including further clerical or military rule, as well as democracy. "The consequences are likely to be as far-reaching as they are uncertain: within the system that has held power for nearly five decades, between the government and a dissatisfied populace, and between Iran and its adversaries," said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told an emergency meeting of the Security Council that he deeply regretted that an opportunity for diplomacy had been "squandered." "Military action carries the risk of igniting a chain of events that no one can control in the most volatile region of the world," he told the 15-member body. That warning, delivered too late to change events already in motion, captures the central dilemma of the days ahead.
Iran's regime was, by any objective measure, a destabilising force that massacred its own citizens and built weapons programmes that threatened regional stability. Those facts are not in dispute. But the gap between a legitimate security objective and a coherent plan for what comes next is where the history of interventionism in this region has most often collapsed. Australia's interests are best served not merely by aligning with allies when strikes are launched, but by pressing urgently for a diplomatic framework that can contain what may still become a very wide war.