If you have a flight booked to Dubai, Doha, or any other Gulf destination in the coming days, the blunt advice from airlines and the Australian government is the same: check before you leave home, because the situation is changing by the hour.
The joint US and Israeli military strikes on Iran that began on Saturday have triggered one of the most severe disruptions to global aviation in years. Smartraveller, the Australian government's official travel advisory service, warned on Sunday that military strikes and reprisal attacks have occurred in Iran and other locations across the Middle East, and that the closure of airspace around transit hubs may impact flights globally, causing delays and cancellations.
At least eight countries declared their airspace closed in the immediate aftermath of the strikes, including Iran, Israel, Iraq, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, according to Al Jazeera. The knock-on effect has been enormous. Aviation analytics firm Cirium reports that key hub airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha were shuttered, with more than 1,800 flights cancelled by major Middle Eastern carriers alone. Emirates and Etihad cancelled 38 per cent and 30 per cent of their flights respectively on Saturday, while Qatar Airways suspended its entire operation from Doha, with 41 per cent of all its scheduled flights cancelled, Cirium data shows.
What Australian Travellers Need to Know
For Australians directly booked on affected services, the picture is clearer but still stressful. As reported by 9News, Virgin Australia cancelled seven flights on Sunday and a further six flights to or from Doha on Monday, 2 March. The airline is offering free booking changes, travel credits and refunds for guests booked on its Doha services up to and including Friday, 6 March. Qatar Airways confirmed its flights remain temporarily suspended due to the closure of Qatari airspace, while Etihad said its flights to and from Abu Dhabi were cancelled until at least 9am AEDT on Monday. Emirates also temporarily suspended all flights to and from Dubai, though travellers are urged to check the airline's website as conditions change rapidly.
The disruption reaches well beyond passengers booked directly to Gulf cities. Airlines that routinely cross Middle Eastern airspace en route to Europe and elsewhere are being forced to reroute south over Saudi Arabia, adding hours to long-haul journeys and burning significantly more fuel. As one airline industry analyst quoted by the Associated Press put it:
"For travellers, there's no way to sugarcoat this. You should prepare for delays or cancellations for the next few days as these attacks evolve and hopefully end."
On the insurance front, travellers hoping their policies will cover them may be disappointed. The Insurance Council of Australia has warned that most policies do not cover losses arising from acts of war or armed conflict. Travellers should contact their insurer directly to clarify what, if anything, they are entitled to claim. Those who purchased policies before 11pm AEDT on 28 February may be in a stronger position than those who booked cover after the strikes began, as insurers are already treating the conflict as a known event.
The Travel Warning Picture
The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has moved quickly to update its guidance. Smartraveller now carries a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory for a broad list of Middle Eastern nations, including Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Iran, according to 9News. Australians already in Iran have been told to leave as soon as possible. For Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Egypt and Armenia, the advice is to exercise a high degree of caution. DFAT has also opened a registration portal specifically for Australian citizens and permanent residents in Israel and Iran, enabling direct contact in an emergency. The 24-hour consular emergency line within Australia is 1300 555 135.
It is worth keeping in mind that the Qantas travel updates page shows no current impact to Qantas-operated flights, including services between Singapore and London. The carrier says it is closely monitoring the situation and will adjust flight paths where necessary.
The Petrol Price Warning
The disruption to aviation is, in many respects, the more immediate concern for Australians with booked travel. But the longer-term economic threat may be felt at the bowser, not the boarding gate.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, handles roughly 20 per cent of global oil supplies each day, according to the US Energy Information Administration. It also carries about 20 per cent of the world's liquefied natural gas exports, much of it from Qatar. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued radio warnings to vessels declaring the strait effectively closed following the strikes, and ship traffic has plummeted as tanker operators and insurers pull back. On Sunday morning, an oil tanker named Skylight was attacked near Khasab Port off Oman's northern coast, the first maritime assault since the conflict began, according to Oman's Maritime Security Centre.
As reported by 7News, energy analyst Saul Kavonic has warned that petrol prices in Australia could rise by between 20 and 40 per cent in the coming weeks if Iran succeeds in disrupting passage through the strait. "If things go badly in the Middle East, we could see our worst oil shock since the 1970s," he said. A prolonged closure of the strait would not only affect motorists; it would push up the cost of aviation fuel, manufactured goods, and virtually every product that moves by ship or plane. Some economists have gone further, warning that a full blockade could tip the global economy into recession.
The Broader Picture
There are grounds for cautious perspective here. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz many times over the past four decades and has never formally done so. Saudi Arabia and the UAE maintain pipeline infrastructure that can partially bypass the strait, though analysts note it handles less than half the typical daily flow. And markets, while rattled, had not yet priced in the most catastrophic scenarios as of the weekend.
But the range of possible outcomes is genuinely wide. The conflict has already proven more intense than many had anticipated, with Iranian retaliation extending beyond American bases to strike Gulf cities and airport infrastructure. Two airports in the UAE reported incidents over the weekend, with four people injured at Dubai International Airport, one of the world's busiest aviation hubs. The situation is, as Etihad Airways acknowledged in a statement, "dynamic" and "may change at short notice."
For Australians assessing their options, the practical advice is consistent across government and industry: contact your airline directly, check Smartraveller for the latest advice on your specific destination, verify what your travel insurance actually covers, and register your details with DFAT if you are in an affected country. A little friction now is vastly preferable to being stranded without options if conditions deteriorate further.
The geopolitical stakes of this conflict will be debated for years. For now, though, the most pressing question for many Australians is a far more human one: how do I get home, and who is going to help me pay for it?