Seven and a quarter lengths. That winning margin from Rose Aye's TAB Highway Handicap at Rosehill last weekend was the kind of performance that raises as many questions as it answers. Was the form genuine? Were the horses behind her any good? And can a mare who bolted in a Highway really hold her own when the competition steps up considerably?
Trainer Matthew Dale, based in Goulburn, thinks the answer is yes. He has installed Rose Aye as the clear favourite with TAB for Sunday's $150,000 Racing NSW Evergreen Turf South East Country Championships over 1400 metres at the Sapphire Coast, and his confidence is grounded in something more than a single impressive result.
"She won by a long way and a couple of big roughies ran second and third, but she ran good time in doing it," Dale told the Sydney Morning Herald. "I always knew that sort of performance was in her. I thought we wouldn't see it until I put winkers or blinkers on her."
The equipment change, combined with Tommy Berry's decisive front-running ride, appears to have flicked a switch. "There was intent the other day from Tommy and it switched her right on and we saw the best version of her," Dale said.
The step from a Highway into one of the country's strongest regional qualifying races is not a small one. Country Championships heats are notoriously open affairs, run across different tracks under varying conditions, and form reversals are common. Dale acknowledged as much, cautioning that in this style of race "nothing should be too short a price."
Physically, at least, Rose Aye appears to have come through her Highway win in good order. "I've been pleased with her. She handles the sting out of the track, which I think you're going to need to, and she drops nicely in weight," Dale said. "She is deep into her prep, being her fifth run, coming off a big win the other day, but she's bounced through it."
Amy McLucas will ride Rose Aye on Sunday, taking over from Berry who steered her to last week's win.
Dale holds a second strong hand in the race with Canadian Ruler, who arrives as the top-rated horse in the field at 90 but carries just 59 kilograms from barrier three. The gelding scored a narrow win over the same distance at Kensington five weeks ago and has had a jump-out since to keep him sharp. Nick Heywood, who knows the horse well, retains the ride.
"He has had another jump out in between and Nick knows him so well, so there are a few ticks in his favour," Dale said.
The Dale stable is also hoping that first emergency Martini Mumma can gain a start if any acceptances are scratched before race day, giving the Goulburn operation three live chances in a race that could provide a pathway to the Country Championships Final in Sydney.
The fundamental question, as always with Country Championships racing, is whether Highway form translates. The margin Rose Aye produced was eye-catching, but punters and rival trainers will rightly scrutinise what finished behind her. Dale is honest about the uncertainty, yet he remains convinced his mare belongs at this level. If the track plays to her preferences and the equipment keeps doing its job, Sunday's race may tell us whether last week was a fluke or simply the first honest look at what this mare is capable of.