Here's a stat that might surprise you: in the modern era of Australian football, only one coach has delivered three consecutive premierships. That was Leigh Matthews with the Brisbane Lions in the early 2000s. Now, two decades later, the Lions are being asked to do it again without him, and the weight of expert opinion says they just might.
A panel of football writers and analysts surveyed by the Sydney Morning Herald delivered their 2026 AFL season predictions this week, and the consensus at the top is striking in its uniformity. Brisbane received the premiership tip from the vast majority of contributors. The Lions' combination of experienced midfield depth, defensive structure, and a settled coaching environment under Chris Fagan makes them the logical choice on paper. But logic, as any football fan knows, is the first casualty of September.
The most intriguing counter-narrative centres on Sydney. While only one expert, Sam McClure, formally tipped the Swans to take the flag, multiple analysts listed them as the side most likely to improve dramatically in 2026. The reasoning is grounded in recent data: Sydney won six of their final eight games last season, including a win over eventual premiers Brisbane. Add the recruitment of Charlie Curnow to a core that already includes Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney, and Errol Gulden, and the argument for a Swans resurgence becomes harder to dismiss.
Beyond the scoreboard, the real story around Sydney is whether Dean Cox's coaching system has genuinely clicked into gear. Cox's first year drew mixed reviews, but the late-season form line suggests the group responded to his methods once the stakes rose. Context matters here: a team that lifts in the final two months of a season, rather than fading, tends to carry that momentum into the following year.
On the individual awards front, Nick Daicos is the near-universal Brownlow Medal pick. The Collingwood midfielder has finished second in each of the past two seasons, a pattern that would test the patience of even the most stoic supporter. Libby Birch framed it plainly: after his State of Origin performance, Daicos is controlling games rather than merely producing highlights. That distinction, between a player who creates moments and one who shapes contests, is what separates good Brownlow candidates from winning ones.
The dissenters are worth noting. Jimmy Bartel nominated Fremantle's Caleb Serong, pointing to a more under-the-radar consistency that can accumulate Brownlow votes quietly across a long season. Jake Niall took the most left-field position, tipping Gold Coast's Noah Anderson. When you dig into the data, Anderson's numbers over the past two seasons place him among the competition's most productive inside midfielders, so the call is unorthodox but not irrational.
At the other end of the ladder, GWS Giants attracted the most pessimistic assessments. Multiple experts cited a combination of key injuries heading into the season and a squad lacking the depth to absorb them. The Giants have a history of underperforming in finals relative to their home-and-away form, and in 2026 they may not even get there in the shape they would want. Collingwood also attracted slide predictions, with the ageing of the list a recurring concern. As one contributor put it, Father Time remains undefeated.
The most contested topic among the panel was the new AFL top-10 finals format, which introduces a wildcard weekend. Opinions split sharply. Some experts believe more teams fighting for finals spots will generate genuine late-season excitement. Others are sceptical, arguing it dilutes the reward for consistent excellence throughout the year and may produce one-off eliminations that flatter mediocre sides. McClure was among the more sceptical voices, describing it as a short-term sugar hit dressed up as innovation. The format will ultimately be judged by what it produces on the field, but the debate reflects a broader tension in the AFL between expanding commercial appeal and maintaining competitive integrity.
On the Rising Star front, Carlton's Jagga Smith drew the most nominations. Smith missed his debut season entirely after an ACL rupture, but pre-season reports suggest he is tracking well and is already impressing at stoppages, a skill that tends to translate quickly to the senior level. Gold Coast's Zeke Uwland also attracted attention, with analysts noting his ability to provide outside run in a midfield that already boasts Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson.
The numbers tell a different story from the narrative around several clubs tipped to struggle. Melbourne, for instance, lost Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca in the off-season, two players whose combined average disposals represented a significant share of the Demons' overall output. Rebuilding that kind of production takes time, and the panel's general view is that 2026 will be a year of patience for the red and blue.
What emerges from the collective expert view is a season with a clear favourite, a credible challenger in Sydney, and enough uncertainty across the middle of the ladder to make the race for the top eight genuinely competitive. Brisbane may well complete the three-peat. But football has a habit of humbling the certain, and the Swans, quietly, look ready to make things interesting.