From Washington: In a development that will reverberate across the Pacific, Donald Trump used his latest State of the Union address to double down on an approach to global affairs that treats even America's closest allies as counterparties in a commercial negotiation rather than partners in a shared order.
Australia sits in a peculiar position within that framework. Trump has described this country as one of America's closest friends, and by his own measure, the 15 per cent tariff levied on Australian exports represents a gesture of goodwill. He could, the President has signalled, have gone much harder. That logic, strained as it may sound in Canberra, is entirely consistent with how this administration views the world: every relationship is a deal, and every deal has a price.
The address itself was long by historical standards and characteristically theatrical. "Our country is winning so much we don't know what to do about it!" Trump told a receptive chamber, drawing loud approval from Republican members. The line played well in the room. Viewed from allied capitals, however, it carried an unmistakable implication: that the rest of the world is simply losing, and Washington has little interest in managing that outcome together.
What the speech confirmed, more than anything, is that America First is hardening into something closer to America Only. As international pressure mounts on the administration to re-engage with multilateral institutions and the rules-based order that Washington itself largely built after 1945, Trump's response has been to pull further inward. His foreign policy cosmology is a small one, bounded by bilateral transactions and domestic political theatre.
Risks that cannot be wished away
For Australian strategic planners, two passages in the address will have attracted close attention. Trump's commitment to expanding America's military industrial base under a defence framework he labelled "Peace Through Strength", with a price tag of around $US1 trillion, offers some reassurance that the AUKUS submarine partnership remains a live commitment. The $268 billion arrangement is the centrepiece of Australia's long-term defence posture, and any signal from Washington that it intends to honour that deal is welcome news for the Australian Parliament and the defence establishment alike.
Less reassuring was Trump's ambiguous treatment of Taiwan's sovereignty. He did not abandon it, but he did not affirm it with any conviction either. For a region in which China's military posture grows more assertive by the year, that ambiguity feeds genuine anxiety among Australian and regional strategists. A US president who hedges on Taiwan creates uncertainty that no amount of AUKUS hardware can entirely offset.
The opportunities Trump has inadvertently created
There is, however, a separate story running beneath the alarm. Trump's tariff policies and his broader retreat from multilateral commitments have unsettled America's traditional allies to the point where they are actively seeking new arrangements with each other. Australia is a direct beneficiary of that scramble.
A free trade agreement with the European Union, long stalled in negotiation, is now reportedly within reach of being finalised within weeks, according to reporting by 7News political editor Mark Riley. European governments, rattled by Washington's unpredictability and alert to China's expanding influence in the Indo-Pacific, are looking to deepen military and intelligence ties with Canberra as well. That is a structural shift in Australia's diplomatic position that would have seemed unlikely just a few years ago.
Critics of a purely transactional reading of this moment argue, with some justification, that Australia should be careful not to celebrate openings that come at a broader cost to the liberal international order. A world in which the United States retreats from multilateral leadership is not, on balance, a safer world for a mid-sized open economy like Australia's. The rules-based trading system and the security architecture that Australia relies on were built with American engagement at their centre. Cheering their erosion, even when short-term deals flow from it, carries long-term risks that deserve honest acknowledgement.
That is a fair and important point. The opportunity to finalise a trade deal with Europe does not compensate for the corrosion of the institutions that underpin global stability. Both things can be true at once.
A friendship with costs attached
Reasonable observers will disagree about how Australia should calibrate its response. Some will argue for a more assertive public pushback against Washington's tariff regime, pointing out that silent acceptance sets a poor precedent and provides little deterrent against further pressure. Others will counsel patience, noting that the AUKUS commitment and the underlying security relationship remain more important than any trade dispute, and that publicly antagonising Trump rarely produces better outcomes.
Both positions reflect genuine values and genuine risks. What is harder to dispute is that Australia now operates in a strategic environment defined by American unpredictability in a way that would have been difficult to imagine a decade ago. Diversifying trade relationships, deepening ties with Europe and regional partners through forums like ASEAN, and maintaining the AUKUS architecture simultaneously is not a contradiction. It is the only pragmatic path available.
Trump's State of the Union offered no comfort to those who hope the United States will return soon to a more engaged, multilateral posture. But it did, in its way, clarify the terms of the relationship. Australia is a friend of Washington's, priced accordingly, with real opportunities and real vulnerabilities attached. Working within that reality, rather than wishing it away, is the task now facing Australian policymakers on both sides of politics.