Authorities are warning that a large portion of southern Australia faces an elevated bushfire risk through autumn, with fire agencies pointing to more than two years of accumulated dryness as the key driver. The assessment, released by the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC), identifies parts of Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia as facing an above-average likelihood of significant bushfires in the coming months.
AFAC chief executive Rob Webb said the elevated risk stemmed from "increased long-term dryness and persistent soil moisture deficits." For most years, autumn signals a gradual winding down of fire danger across the south of the continent, giving land managers a window to conduct prescribed burning. Webb cautioned that this window could be narrower than usual in 2025, with underlying soil conditions too dry to support normal seasonal patterns.
"This is a three-month outlook. Even with the anticipated rains in the south-east in the short term, much more would be required to overcome the long-term moisture deficits." — Rob Webb, AFAC Chief Executive
In Victoria, Emergency Management Victoria Deputy Commissioner Brett Boatman said almost the entire state, excluding East Gippsland and the Mallee, was under elevated risk conditions. Victoria's January fires alone burned through more than 430,000 hectares, adding to a summer that left vast tracts of bush dry and structurally compromised. Dead and dry vegetation has accumulated across much of the state after what Boatman described as more than two years of underlying dryness layered on top of a hot, dry summer.
Boatman said a drier and warmer than average autumn is forecast, which would compound the problem by increasing the amount of available fuel and raising the potential for fires to ignite and spread. Recent rainfall across parts of Victoria has offered some relief, but both state and federal fire authorities have been careful to stress that a few days of rain cannot undo the effects of two-plus years of moisture deficit.
The AFAC seasonal outlook was developed in collaboration with fire specialists from across Australia and draws on climate projections and fire weather data from the Bureau of Meteorology. The bureau's seasonal forecasting has consistently flagged warmer and drier conditions for much of south-eastern Australia in the months ahead, a pattern consistent with longer-term climate trends documented in CSIRO research on shifting fire seasons.
From a public policy standpoint, the outlook raises questions about the adequacy of prescribed burning programmes and community preparedness investment. Proponents of expanded hazard reduction argue that land managers need more resources and less regulatory friction to conduct burns during available windows, particularly given how quickly those windows can close under current climate conditions. It is a position that has gained traction across state governments of varying political stripes, with both Labor and Coalition administrations increasing funding for fuel management in recent years.
Critics of that framing argue that prescribed burning alone cannot address a structural shift in fire risk driven by climate change, and that equal investment in community-level resilience, including early warning systems, evacuation planning and housing standards in high-risk zones, is equally necessary. Parliamentary inquiries following the 2019-20 Black Summer fires made recommendations across both areas, though implementation has been uneven.
The honest assessment is that both arguments carry weight. Fuel management remains a practical and proven tool for reducing fire intensity in the short term, and delays caused by dry underlying conditions represent a genuine operational constraint on land managers right now. At the same time, the recurrence of elevated autumn risk seasons points to a changing baseline that reactive management alone cannot solve. Residents in identified high-risk zones are urged to review their bushfire plans and stay across emergency alerts issued by state authorities as conditions develop over the coming weeks.