After one of the driest starts to a year in recent memory for much of southeastern Australia, the weather has shifted dramatically, and forecasters say the wet spell is only just beginning.
Melbourne recorded just 1.6mm of rain across the entire month of January, a figure that left gardens parched and reservoirs under pressure. February has brought some relief, with 28mm falling so far, including 11mm on Monday alone. The more significant test, however, arrives on Tuesday, when the city faces the potential for severe thunderstorms capable of triggering flash flooding.
Adelaide's situation is even more acute. The South Australian capital recorded exactly zero millimetres in January and only 3.6mm so far this February. Monday's rain event barely registered in the city, even as other parts of the region were drenched. Victoria's Mt Buller received 116mm, Wodonga recorded 103mm, and Swan Hill picked up 43mm. In northeastern South Australia, Blinman recorded 66mm, with Yunta at 28mm and Swan Reach at 26mm.
The driving force behind this activity is a sustained feed of tropical moisture pushing down from the north. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, this pattern is not expected to dissipate quickly, setting the stage for repeated rounds of rain and storm activity across the southeast over the coming week.
Tuesday's focus falls squarely on Melbourne and surrounding districts, along with western NSW. Unlike the slower, more widespread rainfall of the weekend, the coming event is expected to be patchy and intense, with localised downpours creating flash flooding risks in areas that receive a direct hit. South Australia is largely expected to miss Tuesday's activity, but its turn is coming.
For Adelaide, the meaningful rainfall is not forecast to arrive until Friday, but once it does, forecasters suggest it could persist well into the following week. If the city is struck by several of these hit-and-miss storm cells, it could receive more than three times its average monthly rainfall, delivered in short, sharp bursts over just a few days. For a city that has recorded virtually nothing since the start of the year, that presents both welcome relief and a flash flooding risk for infrastructure and stormwater systems unaccustomed to absorbing large volumes quickly.
Residents in affected areas are encouraged to monitor updates from the Bureau of Meteorology's warnings page, which is updated continuously during active weather events. Those in Melbourne and western Victoria in particular should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions on Tuesday, with storms capable of producing dangerous amounts of rain in a short period.
The broader picture, as reported by 7News, is one of a region swinging from drought-like conditions to storm activity with little transition. That volatility is consistent with climate patterns that meteorologists have been tracking across southeastern Australia, where longer dry spells are increasingly punctuated by intense, concentrated rainfall events rather than the slow, steady rain that allows soil and catchments to absorb moisture effectively.
For now, the message is straightforward: keep an eye on forecasts, prepare for the possibility of sudden heavy rain, and take flash flooding warnings seriously if they are issued for your area.