Australia has recorded its highest annual flu death toll of the 21st century, with 1,701 influenza-related fatalities in 2025, according to new data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The figure eclipses the previous century-high of 1,656 deaths set in 2017 and represents a steep rise from 1,045 deaths in 2024 and 611 in 2023.
For a country with a functional public health system and access to free or subsidised vaccines, the scale of preventable death is difficult to accept. The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners president, Dr Michael Wright, did not mince words. "It's very concerning because these numbers don't lie," he said. "People are dying from influenza and many of these deaths would be preventable."
NSW bore the heaviest burden, recording 404 deaths across the year. Victoria followed with 387, and Queensland with 284. Deaths peaked in July at 328 for the month, consistent with the typical winter influenza season, but the Australian Centre for Disease Control flagged an unusual pattern: a secondary surge in cases between October and December, well outside the normal flu season.
"In addition, an unusual secondary increase in influenza cases occurred from October to December, outside of the typical Australian influenza season," a CDC spokesperson said.
More than 500,000 laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were recorded through the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System, a figure that almost certainly undercounts the true infection rate given how few cases are formally tested. The CDC noted that case numbers ran higher than normal from January through April before a prolonged June-to-August peak, followed by an unusually slow decline.
The most troubling thread running through the data is the collapse in vaccination rates. Among children aged six months to five years, one of the cohorts most vulnerable to severe influenza, only 25 per cent received the flu vaccine in 2025. Among Australians over 65, another high-risk group, coverage sat at 60.5 per cent. Both figures represent the lowest rates for those populations since 2021 and 2020 respectively. Australians living with chronic conditions such as diabetes, lung disease, and heart disease also carry elevated risk.
Dr Wright attributes part of the decline to a broader shift in attitudes following the COVID-19 pandemic. "Since COVID-19 there's what you'd almost call a bit of vaccine hesitancy, and there is some misinformation where people are questioning the need for vaccines," he said. That hesitancy deserves to be taken seriously rather than dismissed. Public trust in health institutions was strained during the pandemic years, and rebuilding it requires honest, consistent communication. People with questions about vaccine efficacy are not simply being irrational; they are often responding to a period in which public health messaging was patchy and, at times, contested.
At the same time, the evidence on seasonal flu vaccination is long-established and has not been credibly challenged by the post-COVID scepticism that surrounded mRNA technology. The annual flu shot uses decades-old approaches, and its protective effect for vulnerable populations, while imperfect, is real. Conflating the two vaccines represents a category error with lethal consequences, as the 2025 mortality figures make plain.
There are structural factors worth examining, too. Access to vaccination, particularly for working families and people in regional and remote areas, is not always straightforward. A more active public outreach effort, rather than passive promotion, could close some of the gap. The planned rollout of a nasal spray flu vaccine for children under five, starting in Queensland ahead of the 2026 season with other states to follow, is a practical step in the right direction. Removing barriers matters as much as messaging.
Dr Wright's prescription for 2026 is clear: lift vaccination rates, particularly among the young and the elderly, and challenge the widespread perception that influenza is merely a severe cold. "More than 1,500 people died last year from influenza, so it's not just a cold," he said. He urged anyone uncertain about the flu vaccine to speak with a GP before the next winter season begins.
The 2025 data should prompt a sober, honest review of how Australia approaches seasonal influenza prevention. The tools to prevent these deaths exist and are widely available. The challenge now is ensuring that governments, health authorities, and the public work from the same evidence base, set aside the lingering distrust of the COVID era where it does not apply, and use those tools far more effectively before the next wave arrives.